Wednesday Polling Report [5.9.12]
Just a refresher on how we rate states as strong or lean or tossup.
If a candidate has a 10 point lead or more, that state is a strong state for that candidate. If it is a strong Obama state, the color is dark blue. If it is a strong Romney state, the color is dark red or maroon.
If a candidate has between a 5 and a 10 point lead (technically 5.0 to 9.99), then that state is a lean statwe for that candidate. If it is a lean Obama state, the color is light blue. If it is a lean Romney state, the color is light red.
And if a state shows a lead for a candidate between 0 points and 4.99 points, or if both candidates are tied, then it is a tossup state. Tossup states are colored yellow or gold.
I use only the most recent poll, not an average. And I do not use Rasmussen.
IOWA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 41.
This will change Iowa on our map from Tossup to Strong Obama.
OHIO–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 43.
This will change Ohio back to lean Obama from tossup.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Romney 44, Obama 39, Paul 13
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 49, Romney 42
MASSACHUSETTS–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45
VIRGINIA–SENATOR (Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46
So here is our revised map, with Iowa switching from toss up to strong Obama. The rest remains the same.
Obama 294
Romney 181
Toss up 63
If you want to check my math, go here.
Obama just needs to hold all the Gore states, plus win Iowa and Virginia, states he is already performing very strongly in. If he wins Ohio or Florida, he could afford to lose both IA & VA, or PA instead. If he won IA, VA, NV, CO, and NH, he could afford to lose the FL, OH, PA trifecta. Mitt Romney is doing very poorly in blue states that Bush made competitive, whereas Obama is making formerly safe-red states competitive. If Mitt has to play defense in Arizona rather than offense in Wisconsin, then the odds are stacked against him.
EDUCATION REQUESTED HERE. Whats up in Colorado. What is our problem there ? We won there in 08 right?
Well to start Colorado Springs is a military town and stronghold of the Christian Right, plus there is Western libertarianism and anti-Hispanic prejudice to deal with.
Yes, we won there in 2008 and will again in 2012. The reason the state is yellow is the last poll in the state on April 23 had Romney and Obama tied at 47%. The last poll before that on April 5 had Obama winning by 13, 53% to 40%. So it is likely that the most recent tied poll is an outlier. But until we get a new poll out of Colorado, the state remains a toss up.
And to be sure, most other news organizations and blogs list Colorado as either lean Dem or likely Dem because they all average their poll results together. I don’t.
DD, Was CO blue or red in 2000 and 2004?
Bush won them both times, in 2000 and 20004. Clinton won Colorado in 1992, but lost it in 1996. So over the last twenty years, it is a lean Republican state, with the Rs winning in 1996, 00, and 04. But the state, like Virginia, is trending demographically Democratic. So now it is more competitive.
Thanks. I hope we win it.
My prediction is that Obama loses Indiana, NC, and NE-2, but picks up Missouri, and once again resoundingly wins. (ie wins VA, CO, NV, IA, FL, OH again)
I see the map running pretty much as above with CO going to Obama, and MO,NC,FL going to Romney. NC would likely be the most competitive in that set.
That would give Obama 303, and the cushion to lose one more big state, or a couple of smaller ones.
I still say Romney picks up CO–remember he saved the OLYMPICS–and all those jobs were out of CO. They loved him. Plus, they only did blue once……..
And…
Air Force Academy
Fort Carson
Charter School Mega Networks
Ranchers AKA Ken Salazar who was just appointed major leadership position in the Mormon church s/p leaving Obama
Am I making you rethink this yet????
The Olympics were in Utah. What CO jobs?????
The US Olympic Committe and Headquarters and training facilities are all in CO.
He “saved” one set of games. He “saved” the whole Olymoic movement like he “saved” GM
Nah–I think it has a bit more patriotic and folksy feel than that. And that pro bono pricetag didn’t hurt at all. And let me think….was he “Man of the Year” for that selfless, humanitarian, and philanthropic service?
Reason one hundred sixty two thousand why obama will lose in a landslide. And none of the pundits or delaware liberal folks are even talking about it. You see if the msm shows a close race, then they have six months of high ratings. When everyone gives all these states to obama they forget one very important thing, heading into the 2008 election, 28 states had democrats for governor, vs 22 states with republican governors. Now there are 29 republican governors vs only 21 democrats. That is a positive change in favor of republicans of 15 states. Simply put, that means the majority of voters in 15 states have decided to go with republican leadership instead of democrat leadership since 4 years ago. So you guys keep believing the pundits instead of me, ignorance is bliss
@Rd “ignorance is bliss”
So true.
Thanks for the laugh Rusty. Most if not all of the rethugs elected governor in 2010 are so unpopular because they have not delivered on campaign promises of jobs and fixing the economy but have pursued their social agenda that they are looking at losing control of their legislatures this fall. But hey, keep looking at things through those teabag-colored glasses.
States where the gov went GOP that Romney would win anyway: Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming
States where the gov went GOP that Obama will win easily: New Jersey
Swing States where the new GOP gov is so unpopular, he’s actually helping Obama: Florida, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin
Swing States where Obama is leading by 5 or more points despite the new GOP gov being moderately popular: Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia
Swing States with Democratic govs: Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina
Swing States that Obama won despite having a GOP gov in 2008: Indiana, Florida, NE-2, Nevada
So again, just to reiterate, you dont think it matters that 15 more states now have republican governors than in 2008.