So how does a President’s embrace of same sex marriage play in our polling world? The real answer to the question is no one knows because it has never happened before. Will Obama lose states because of his support of same sex marriage? Maybe. North Carolina probably got a little harder to win, since the CW is “well they just banned gay marriage by 20 points, that must mean Obama will lose North Carolina by 20 points now, right?”
Nope.
First off, can we all agree that it is a pretty bad idea to vote on CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS in a low turnout primary where only partisans can vote? Indeed, that is why the Republicans scheduled the vote on Amendment during the primary, to ensure its passage. They said so. If they had to schedule during the general election, it was going to lose. They said so. So what does that tell you about Obama’s chances of winning North Carolina then?
If Republicans feared that a ban on gay marriage was going to be defeated in the general election in North Fracking Carolina, then why is Obama now destined to lose the state because of his support of it.
So pay not attention to stories like this one from Politico. Not even the feeble minds (that have gotten less feeble since they hired Ginger Gibson) of Politico knows which states, if any, are now doomed territory for the President.
Now onto the polls.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Angus Reid): Romney 49, Obama 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Associated Press/GfK): Obama 50, Romney 42
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 48, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov/The Economist): Obama 44, Romney 43
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (a href=”http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_WED_FL_Marginals_May_9_2012.pdf”>Suffolk University): Obama 46, Romney 45
This poll confirms Florida’s tossup status.
MASSACHUSETTS–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 56, Romney 35
Mass is strong Obama.
NEW JERSEY–PRESIDENT (Fairleigh Dickinson): Obama 50, Romney 36
So is New Joisey.
The map changes not.
