Friday Polling Report [5.11.12]

A new Bloomberg Global poll finds investors around the world increasingly prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney in the presidential election, 49% to 38%. In January, the two men were tied. Since they are investors, I think this poll does not reflect personal preference, but rather who they think is going to win.

Now, normally, we focus on polling of races that will occur this year. But today we have some polls of races far into the future. 2013 and 2016.

NEW YORK–MAYOR–2013 (Quinnipiac): Christine Quinn (D) 48, Ray Kelly (R) 33; Bill DeBlasio (D) 46, Kelly 34; William Thompson (D) 46, Kelly 34

So it looks like, after 20 years of Republican rule, the Mayorship might be returning to the Democrats.

IOWA–PRESIDENT–2016–DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS (PPP): Hillary Clinton 62, Joe Biden 14, Elizabeth Warren 4, Andrew Cuomo 4, Russ Feingold 2, Brian Schweitzer 2, Martin O’Malley 1, Mark Warner 0

I assume Jack Markell got less than zero. Perhaps a Presidential campaign is not in the cards for our Governor. Perhaps he should tell Carper to retire in 2018.

IOWA–PRESIDENT–2016–REPUBLICAN CAUCUS (PPP): Mike Huckabee 16, Rick Santorum 16, Chris Christie 15, Jeb Bush, 10, Sarah Palin 10, Rand Paul 9, Marco Rubio 7, Paul Ryan 5.

Now back to the present:

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (North Star Opinion Research for Resurgent Republic–R): Obama 49, Romney 42

LOL. A tea party Republican poll finds Obama leading by 7. Don’t they know how to stack the deck like Rasmussen? Although, maybe they did, and still got Obama winning. You will see what I mean if you read the questions and then see the responses.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Public Religion Research Institute): Obama 47, Romney 38

Now this poll is damned interesting. It is a poll asking about religious issues done by a religious organization. In one of the questions asking what they thought about what Obama’s religious beliefs are, 16% of the respondents thought he was a Muslim, 40% thought he is some kind of Christian (i.e. Protestant, Catholic or just plain old Christian), and 39% didn’t know what his religious beliefs are. On the flip side, 51% knew that Romney is Mormon.

If you take that 39% who don’t know what his religious beliefs are and are insulted, don’t be. It turns out that 39% of the respondents also responded in an answer to another question that it is not at all important that a candidate share their own religious views, and an additional 19% think it is not too important. So a grand total of 58% of respondents think that a candidate’s religious beliefs are not at all or not too important when considering voting for them. This result found by a religious organization. I wonder if they are happy about that.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 45

OHIO–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (45-44)

This poll moves Ohio back to Tossup status.

WASHINGTON–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (50-36); Obama d. Romney and Ron Paul (40-27-20)

This poll keeps Washington state classified as Strong Obama.

So, let’s update our map….

Obama 276
Romney 181
Tossup 81

While I normally don’t cover House polls, this one seems worth passing on…

FLORIDA–18TH CD (Frederick Polls for Murphy): Patrick Murphy (D) 45, Rep. Allen West (R) 45
MASSACHUSETTS–SENATOR (MassInc): Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 41
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR (Fairleigh Dickinson): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 42, Joseph Kyrillos (R) 33
OHIO–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45, Josh Mandel (R) 37
OHIO–SENATOR (Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 40
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Rasmussen): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45