Polling Report [5.16.12]
We have a mother load of polls to go through today, mostly because I was away from a computer all day yesterday. But before we get to the polls, let me first thank our beloved fire and mouth breathing teabaggers, for making yet another Senate seat now extremely competitive. Nebraska, like Indiana, was supposed to be won easily by the GOP this fall. Indeed, Nebraska was going to be an all important pick up seat, allowing the GOP to possibly take control of the chamber, as incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Nelson was finally retiring.
Alas… the establishment far right candidates for the race were not far right and evil enough for the teabaggers.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 48, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (CBS News): Romney 46, Obama 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 41
This will move NH from Lean Obama to Strong Obama.
NEW JERSEY–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac ): Obama 49, Romney 39
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 47, Romney 46
Wisconsin polling always gets close, and like New Jersey, it deceives Republicans into wasting money there. But, since it is a 1 point lead for Obama, Wisconsin is not a toss up state.
MAINE–PRESIDENT (Critical Insights): Obama 50, Romney 42
Given our polling guidelines, which again rate 10 point leads or more as “Strong,” and leads of between 5 to 9.9 points as “Lean,” the 8 point lead found in the poll forces us to reclassify Maine as Lean Obama instead of Strong Obama.
MINNESOTA–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA): Obama 52, Romney 38
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT (Siena): Obama 57, Romney 37
INDIANA–SENATOR (Global Strategy Group for Donnelly): Joe Donnelly (D) 40, Richard Mourdock (R) 40
MISSOURI–SENATOR (Mellman Group for Majority PAC): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 44, Todd Akin (R) 39; McCaskill 46, John Brunner (R) 38; McCaskill 45, Sarah Steelman (R) 36
NEW YORK–SENATOR (Siena): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 59, Bob Turner (R) 25; Gillibrand 60, Wendy Long (R) 26; Gillibrand 60, George Maragos (R) 25
NORTH CAROLINA–GOVERNOR (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 46, Walter Dalton (D) 40
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (PPP for Daily Kos): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45, Hari Trivedi (I) 2
WISCONSIN–SENATOR (PPP for Daily Kos): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 42; Mark Neumann (R) 46, Baldwin 42; Eric Hovde (R) 45, Baldwin 41
Our new map and electoral vote totals:
Obama 262
Romney 185
Tossup 91
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 31% of Americans have a higher opinion of President Obama because of his gay marriage decision and 30% see him less favorably. Forty percent say the announcement had no impact on their view of the president.
Why do many of us consider Arizona to be a competitive state? Ruy Teixeira explains:
Start with the “McCain effect” on the 2008 result in the state. There are compelling reasons to believe that GOP performance in Arizona would have been far weaker in 2008 had it not been the home state of the Republican nominee, John McCain. Indeed, Arizona was statistically an outlier, especially for its area of the country, when it came to the polls. For example, the overall national margin swing toward Obama was around 9.7 points–he won by 7.3 points and Kerry lost by 2.4 points. If the Arizona swing had matched the national swing, Obama would have lost the state by less than a point. And if Arizona had swung as much as the nearby southwestern states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico (all between 14 and 16 points, for an average of 15 points), Obama would have actually won the state by 4 points. So there is a reasonable case to be made that the 2008 election result drastically understates Democratic strength in the state in Presidential elections.
Next, consider the influence of ongoing demographic changes in the state which have been steadily increasing the percentage of minority eligible voters, mostly Hispanics, and reducing the share of relatively conservative white working class voters. According to William Frey’s analysis of census data, these trends have continued and perhaps accelerated in the last four years. The composition of the Arizona electorate in 2012 could be 3 to 4 points more minority (chiefly Hispanic) and 3 to 4 points less white working class than in 2008.
Teixeira concludes that Arizona is Obama’s best prospect for a pick-up. “If there is one state that Obama can plausibly win that he did not in 2008, Arizona is it.” He is probably right, but I consider Missouri as a good possibility as well.
A process question: I was recently told by somebody at the national level in one of the campaigns that PPP is not really considered to be methodologically sound by the rest of the polling world.
Anybody else ever heard this, and if so, why?
It is something to do with the fact that they use robo-callers, push bottom responses instead of live interviews, and did work for dkos. But, they’ve been more accurate than the others, so it depends on what you care about.
That was kind of my take–the accuracy, I mean. I followed them closely in NC over the past few years and they’ve been spot on.
What I found interesting is that the Presidential Commission apparently does not think they qualify as a major national poll.
Steve,
Jason is right. As far as results, PPP is the most accurate in 2008. But they do robo calling rather than live humans. Some feel that makes the poll unsound somehow. I am not sure how. The most important aspect of polling, in my opinion, is forming your random sample and making it reflective of the voting population.
That is where Rasmussen and some others err, as they poll more Republicans than are represented in the voting population.
As for the Presidential Commission, I think that has to do with them being a relatively new polling outfit when compared to Gallup or Quinnipiac.
I think you ought to put NC into the R’money column…and take it to the bank!
Maybe. That means R’money only needs all of the rest of the toss-up states to break his way in order to win.
You can also color VA and NV yellow…so there’s plenty of room for error.
I predict a Bush vs. Kerry-style battle, this time, though, the incumbent gets the boot…and gets to nominate 2 or 3 associates to the SCOTUS…thhhpppttt!!!
I swear, teabagging racist conservatives like Que Pasa are slow and often have low IQs. For the one millionth time, the colors on the map are not my opinion or your opinion. They are representative of the most recent poll in that state.
So you can take your coloring orders and shove it.
The differences between map: here -> RCP’s map
AZ leanR -> tossup
TX leanR -> R
TN leanR -> R
IA D -> tossup (probably should be a leanD)
KY leanR -> R
NH D -> tossup (probably should be a leanD)
VA leanD -> tossup
GA R -> leanR
Also, your total for Obama should be 266?
That is because they average their polls. I don’t.
I use this calculator to determine the electoral vote: http://www.270towin.com/
@DD “That is because they average their polls. I don’t.”
I know. I was just pointing out differences. Overall, you favor Obama more than RCP does, but only slightly.
@DD “I use this calculator to determine the electoral vote: http://www.270towin.com/”
I still get 266. Did you forget to click on NH?
If I favor Obama it is only because the most recent polls do. 😉
I figured the discrepancy in the math. I forgot to click on Hawaii. There is the missing four votes. So you are right, LE.
I can’t believe that Scott Walker is holding onto a lead in Wisconsin. He rivals GWB in douchie scumbagginess.