And now onto the House. Since the last time we did this in March, some new candidates have filed. But before we go on, I should note something. In the chart below, I list every incumbent unless they have announced that they are not running for reelection. In a lot of cases, some incumbents have not yet filed, but they have some more time to do so, since the deadline is not until July 10.
All 41 Representatives are up for election. So let’s see what has developed in the House races since the last time we reviewed the playing field.
In the open 1st, Charles Potter now has a primary with Rourke Moore. No Republicans have filed yet, and even if one did, this district is safe Democratic.
Debra Heffernan (D) has a Republican opponent in the 6th, as Eric Taylor, owner of Prevent Alarm Company, has filed. As El Som says, due to the census and redistricting, the 6th is marginally more Republican than it was in 2010, but I still consider it a lean Democratic district, and have listed it as such below in the chart. But we will keep an eye on this one.
Since the 20th RD was moved downstate, and incumbent Republican Representatives Nick Manolakos and Joe Miro were placed into the same district, the 22nd, we have been wondering which one would be the first to file. Well, it is Joe Miro. So now the question is does Manolakos primary him, or does he retire? Democrat David Ellis, who ran in 2010, has filed again. I have listed this race below as a toss up race, just because of the uncertainty of a Republican primary and wishful thinking on my part. In all likelihood, since the registration is still overwhelmingly GOP, it is likely that this seat stays Republican.
In the 10th RD, Democratic Representative Dennis E. Williams is getting a rematch with Bob Rhodunda (R). Dennis defeated Bod, 55% to 45% in 2010, a Republican year. I am listing this as a toss up race given the competitive nature of the district, but I expect the resilient Williams to survive. As for Rhodunda, here is what El Som said about Bob in 2010:
His opponent, Robert Rhodunda, is right out of the Greg Lavelle Training Academy. Like Lavelle, he is from the insurance field. Like Lavelle, he has served his time in the Council of Civic Organizations of Brandywine Hundred, which has devolved from a legitimate voice for the region into a launching pad for political wannabes. He’s even put in the requisite 5-year Little League stint.
In the new 11th RD in the Middletown area, we have three candidates who have filed: Democrats Lynne Newlin and David Brown, and Republican Jeff Spiegelman. I have no idea about any of them, so I look forward to hearing from our commenters about their opinions. And since I have no idea, I rate this race as a tossup until I find out different.
In the 12th RD, Democrat Frann Anderson has filed to run against Representative Deborah Hudson (R). This seat will stay Republican.
In the new 20th RD downstate, we have three candidates running, and again it is two Democrats and one Republican: Democrats Marie Mayor and Lynn Rogers and Republican Steve Smyk. I rate this race as a toss up because, again, I don’t know enough yet about the demographics and these candidates.
Trey Paradee lost the 29th RD by 50 votes in 2008, which eventually forced Represenative Pam Thornburg to retire in 2009. He did not run in 2010 for some reason, and the seat went to Republican Lincoln Willis. But now Paradee is back. And given his profile in the district, his close result in 2008, and Willis’ freshman status, I rate the 29th as a toss up now.
In the 32nd, Brad Bennett has an opponent in Republican Ellis Parrott. Given Brad’s drinking and driving issues of late, he might be in trouble, which is why I rated this district as a toss up.
In the 33rd and 34th RDs, we have Democrats John K. Robbins and Ted Yacucci filing to face Republican incumbents Harold Peterman and Donald Blakely, respectively. I still expect these districts to go Republican though.
As you know, Representative Gerald Hocker in the 38th has filed to run for the 20th Senate District, so this is now an open seat. Former Representative Shirley Price has filed to run, and she has a Republican opponent in Ronald Gray. Given Price’s name recognition, I am listing this race as a toss up, or at the least competitive.
Republican incumbent Biff Lee is retiring in the 40th, and Republican Tim Dukes has filed to replace him. No Democrats have filed yet, but I would expect this district to remain Republican.
Here is a map of the new House Districts with their current party representation indicated by the colors red (Republican) and blue (Democratic), with the 11th District in southern New Castle County and northern Kent County and the 20th District in Sussex County are colored grey as no one is currently representing these newly created districts.
Here is my chart of the races in the House. I have colored the races I expect to go Democratic in the fall blue, while races I expect to go to the Republicans are colored red. The tossup or competitive races are colored yellow.
The Democrats hold a 26-15 majority in the House, and there are no signs yet that this majority is in danger. The Republicans would need to pick up 6 seats to reach 21, enough for a majority. And yet there are only two Democratic seats that I would consider in danger at this point: Dennis Williams in the 10th and Brad Bennett in the 32nd. The rest of the toss up districts are currently held by Republicans, so they are playing a lot of defense here, and that is not the position to be in if you want to actually gain seats. Indeed, it is possible for the Dems to gain seats, as the new RDs in the 11th and 20th might fall to them. And the 29th and 38th will have competitive races with good Democratic candidates.