It has been a couple of months since we have done this, so let’s check in on the playing field of our General Assembly races this fall. First up is the Senate. The Senate has 21 members, 14 of them are Democrats and 7 are Republicans. The GOP would need to pickup 4 seats to gain of majority of 11.
The big news since we last did this is that Liane Sorenson, the moderate Republican Senator who was redistricted into a very competitive race with Democratic Senator Dave Sokola in a new merged 8th Senate District in the Newark area, decided to retire rather than face Sokola. I must say, I found that surprising. I had listed that race as a toss up of course, but if I had to bet the race, I would have said that Sorenson had the edge. But maybe the demographics of the new 8th SD were too daunting.
In the 12th SD, where Republican Dori Connor always counts on union support to win in this overwhelmingly Democratic district, she is now in trouble. I will let El Som explain.
Connor has never had what one would call a credible Democratic challenger in this overwhelmingly-Democratic district. How Democratic, you ask? How about a Democratic majority, meaning that there are more registered D’s than registered R’s and I’s combined: 18,6718 D, 7490 R, and 7400 I. So, who, you ask is Nicole Poore? What if I told you that she is the Development Director for Exceptional Care for Children, a Newark-based nursing home providing specialized care for infants and children? If you scroll down to the second picture here, you will see her with John Kowalko and Bethany Hall-Long. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Sen. Hall-Long was a principal figure in Poore’s recruitment. [W]e also know that she is the parent of a special needs child. As to Sen. Connor, who I’ve always liked, she has not been in the best of health, and she was hoping that her labor allies would help her win just one more term. But, her district post-reapportionment has moved even further away from her New Castle stronghold, and her friend Liane Sorenson is retiring, which could well be an important consideration. I could be wrong here, but this district looks poised to swing D in November, and it’s far from certain that Connor, or any R, even runs.
Since this post by El Som a couple of weeks ago, Connor has filed to run for reelection. If she did not, this would be a Democratic pickup. Since she has filed, I rate it as a toss up race, and if I were a betting man, I would say Poore has the edge.
In the new 6th SD downstate, former Dewey Beach Mayor Bob Frederick has thrown his hat into the ring that is the Democratic Primary. Andrew Staton was already running, and is what I would call the establishment’s favorite. Micheal Miller, the former three time failed Congressional candidate, is making quite the quixotic run for a Democrat, considering how anti-equal rights for gays he is. On the GOP side it is a fight between Ernie Lopez and the male Christine O’Donnell, Glen Urquhart.
In the 11th SD, Tony Deluca has filed to run for reelection against Attorney Bryan Townsend. Christine O’Donnell thug Evan Queitsch will seek the Republican nomination to be destroyed by the winner of the Deluca-Townsend primary.
In the 14th SD, Senator Bruce Ennis has a GOP opponent in Scott Unruh. Anyone know anything about Unruh, like how to pronounce his name?
In the 20th SD, Representative Gerald Hocker (R) is running to replace retiring Senator George Bunting (D). This becomes an instant GOP pickup.
In the 19th SD, teabagger Eric Bodenweiser is seeking a rematch with Senator Joe Booth (R) in the GOP primary. He lost by only 120 votes last time. I say he now has the edge this time around, as Booth has been tarnished by taking that state job and the Teabagglandia seems to be against him. And since that is the case, I rate this race as competitive since if Bodenweiser gets the nomination, a credible downstate conservative Democrat can win against him. So that is why I list this race now as a toss up race for now.
In the 21st SD, Senator Bob Venables (D) announced that he is running for reelection, and now he has a Republican opponent in Bryant Richardson. Given the conservative leanings of the district, I rate this as a toss up.
Here is the statewide map, showing the new 2012 Senate districts. If a Democrat current holds the district, it is colored blue, if a Republican holds the district it is colored red, and if it is a new district, it is colored grey.
Here is the chart showing my estimation as to where the races for these seats stand. If I think the Democrat will hold the seat, it is colored blue. If I think a Republican will win, it is colored red, and if it is a tossup, it is colored yellow.
I think the GOP has lost its chance to pick up the majority. They now have no margin for error, since the 6th SD has been taken off the table. The three seats they need for the majority in the chamber are seats they can win: the 4th, the 6th and the 21st. But of those three, I will put them as favorites in only the 4th. The 6th is a true toss up, and the 21st you have to give the advantage to Venables. And we also have to consider that now the GOP will be defending turf in the 5th and in the 12th, were in both it is quite possible that the Democrats will win and pickup two seats. If that happens, then it is impossible for the GOP to regain the majority.