There was not much by way of polls released over the holiday weekend, so we will have to make do today by looking at some internals of recent polls.
Given that the economy is the most important issue of this election, and given the conventional wisdom that a bad economy dooms President Obama, how do we explain Nevada?
The Silver State … has the dubious distinction of leading the nation in unemployment, foreclosure filings and share of homes worth less than the mortgages on them.
If voters were inclined to blame Obama for the nation’s economic woes, Nevada would be strong Romney territory. Heck, as a bonus, it’s one of the most heavily Mormon states in the union! And yet, the polls show it to be consistent Obama territory, with even Rasmussen giving Obama over 50% of the vote. If Romney can’t win in Nevada, then he is doomed everywhere.
Indeed, perhaps a Washington Post / ABC News poll dated May 20 explains what is going on.
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems—Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
Bush: 49
Obama: 34
Both: 8What do you think is the bigger problem in this country—unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity?
Unfairness: 56
Over-regulation: 34
Both: 5
This means that the public overwhelmingly agrees with President Obama’s core argument, by a 22 point margin. President Obama’s campaign theme is about moving forward from the mess Bush created towards an economy in which everyone has a fair shot and in which hard work and playing by the rules is rewarded with success. And it helps that nearly a majority of the public still blames the mess Bush created on Bush.
Meanwhile, last week a new national NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Telemundo poll found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 34 points among registered Latino voters, 61% to 27%. That number is only going to get higher as latinos discover just how evil Mitt Romney is on immigration.
That also could explain Nevada and other southwestern states.
In other polling news, Gallup has found that everyone thinks birth control is morally acceptable. Even 82% of Catholics.
And while the right wing was going crazy last week over a poll showing that only 41% of the public identified themselves as pro-choicers. Well, I guess a lot of them are hypocrites since 77% of them still want abortion legal, either under some restrictions or no restrictions.
