Tuesday Polling Report [5.29.12]
There was not much by way of polls released over the holiday weekend, so we will have to make do today by looking at some internals of recent polls.
Given that the economy is the most important issue of this election, and given the conventional wisdom that a bad economy dooms President Obama, how do we explain Nevada?
The Silver State … has the dubious distinction of leading the nation in unemployment, foreclosure filings and share of homes worth less than the mortgages on them.
If voters were inclined to blame Obama for the nation’s economic woes, Nevada would be strong Romney territory. Heck, as a bonus, it’s one of the most heavily Mormon states in the union! And yet, the polls show it to be consistent Obama territory, with even Rasmussen giving Obama over 50% of the vote. If Romney can’t win in Nevada, then he is doomed everywhere.
Indeed, perhaps a Washington Post / ABC News poll dated May 20 explains what is going on.
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems—Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
Bush: 49
Obama: 34
Both: 8What do you think is the bigger problem in this country—unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity?
Unfairness: 56
Over-regulation: 34
Both: 5
This means that the public overwhelmingly agrees with President Obama’s core argument, by a 22 point margin. President Obama’s campaign theme is about moving forward from the mess Bush created towards an economy in which everyone has a fair shot and in which hard work and playing by the rules is rewarded with success. And it helps that nearly a majority of the public still blames the mess Bush created on Bush.
Meanwhile, last week a new national NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Telemundo poll found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 34 points among registered Latino voters, 61% to 27%. That number is only going to get higher as latinos discover just how evil Mitt Romney is on immigration.
That also could explain Nevada and other southwestern states.
In other polling news, Gallup has found that everyone thinks birth control is morally acceptable. Even 82% of Catholics.
And while the right wing was going crazy last week over a poll showing that only 41% of the public identified themselves as pro-choicers. Well, I guess a lot of them are hypocrites since 77% of them still want abortion legal, either under some restrictions or no restrictions.
The term “Pro-life” means nothing. I’m also convinced when people tell pollsters that they are “conservative” they mean that they try to pay off the credit card balances each month.
BTW – speaking of polls has anyone else noticed a big uptick in telemarketing disguised as opinion polling? If the trend continues I would expect results to begin to be skewed in some odd ways.
@DD “If Romney can’t win in Nevada, then he is doomed everywhere.”
Romney does seem to be doomed. But then again, a $$$billion$$$ of propaganda, swiftboating, and deceptive advertising is liable to make some sort of a dent. The only question is how big of a dent.
I think that abortion is morally unacceptable, so I fall into the 15% of Catholics bracket. I also fall into the bracket of those who believe that we should leave no stone unturned to reduce/eliminate unwanted pregnancy. I’m sort of a root cause kinda guy. If you don’t like abortion you should hate the cause of abortion, which is unwanted pregnancy.
Until the so-called conservatives get on board the condom train (along with other methods), I can’t believe they are serious about being pro life. Until then, society is going to default to terminating pregnancy as solution rather than eliminating (unwanted) pregnancy.
Of course someone will probably say that unwanted pregnancy is not a root cause and that the lack of prayer in schools and societal decay are the root causes. Still we tend to treat symptoms rather than causes because it’s easier to see and understand the symptoms.
“only 41% of the public identified themselves as pro-choicers. Well, I guess a lot of them are hypocrites since 77% of them still want abortion legal, ”
LOL… this is because Republicans and religious leaders have made “pro choice” sound dirty somehow, just like they did with “liberal.” Throw in a heaping measure of stupidity and you get this kind of reasoning:
Are you pro-choice? “Of course not!”
Do you think abortion should be legal? “Yes!”
or
Are you a liberal? “Hell no!”
Do you think you are entitled to Social Security and Medicare? “Of course!”
Language is control.
That was a refreshing take on birth control from someone opposed to abortion. The problem is that the anti-abortion industrial complex is more interested in fund-raising than they are in reducing the number of abortions.
People forget that Catholics are a conservative leadership with a liberal base. In other words, they are Democrats.
I’m not so sure anymore. (Formerly) working class Irish and Italians haven’t stuck with the New Deal coalition in the same way other hyphenated-American groups have.
And why would they? What have the Democrats offered, except wtaer5ed down Republicanism?
@Dave “I think that abortion is morally unacceptable, so I fall into the 15% of Catholics bracket.”
That 15% is for birth control, not abortion. There are still 15% who want to get rid of birth control!
Oops. yeah you’re right. Ok, so I’m an 82 percenter on BC and a 52 percenter on abortion.