The Polling Report [5.31.12]

Filed in National by on May 31, 2012

New polls in Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado show close races in four of the five states.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 45, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov/The Economist): Obama 46, Romney 43
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 45, Romney 44

We forget how close Missouri was in 2008. This poll keeps Missouri as a Toss-up state.

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43

This poll demotes Wisconsin from Strong Obama to Lean Obama. I have a feeling this state will facillate between the two all election, giving Republicans some false hope.

IOWA–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 44, Romney 44
NEVADA–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 48, Romney 46
COLORADO–PRESIDENT (NBC News / Marist): Obama 46, Romney 45

These three polls put these states in the toss up column. Nevada had been in the Lean Obama column, and Iowa had been in the Strong Obama column after the prior most recent polls respectively. The prior most recent poll out of Colorado was a four point lead for Obama.

So our new map:

The Electoral College Totals:

Obama — 298
Romney — 170
Toss Up — 70

MICHIGAN–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37; Stabenow 53, Clark Durant (R) 31
NEW YORK–SENATOR (Quinnipiac): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 56, Robert Turner (R) 26; Gillibrand 57, George Maragos (R) 24; Gillibrand 58, Wendy Long (R) 24
OHIO–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 42
WASHINGTON–GOVERNOR (Strategies 360): Rob McKenna (R) 43, Jay Inslee (D) 39
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Lake Research for Greater Wisconsin): Tom Barrett (D) 49, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Tom Barrett (D) 45

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Comments (3)

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  1. Jason330 says:
    May 31, 2012 at 2:09 pm

    Florida has to be killing Republicans right now.

  2. X Stryker says:
    May 31, 2012 at 3:40 pm

    Iowa result is concerning, hopefully it’s an outlier rather than a predictor since previous polls showed much bigger leads for Obama in Iowa. Perhaps the Rove/Koch money is having an effect.

  3. Liberal Elite says:
    May 31, 2012 at 7:49 pm

    Obama’s lead has increased substantially nationwide, but it’s not because he is polling better. What we have are a lot more undecided and they have been coming at the expense of Romney. Frankly, I’d prefer to see more solid support for Obama.

    Iowas poll is a concern. That was a large sample, but so was the Florida poll. If we can swap IA for FL, that’s fine with me.

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