Alan I. Abramowitz argues at Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball that “Buying a Presidential Election? It’s Not as Easy as You Think.”
“The airwaves in the eight or 10 states that will decide the outcome of the 2012 presidential election will soon be saturated with ads supporting and opposing Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, all aimed at persuading a small group of undecided voters — less than 10%, according to most recent polls…These undecided voters are much less interested in the presidential election than those who have already chosen sides…The net impact of all of this advertising is likely to be minimal…Research by political scientists and evidence from 2012 polls in the battleground states suggests that the parties and candidates would do better to focus their efforts in these states on mobilizing their supporters rather than trying to persuade uncommitted voters.”