Kovach’s Hesitation
In our latest unscientific tracking poll, Congressman John Carney (D) leads Republican Tom Kovach, 50% to 28%. But a sizeable chuck – 18% – voted Neither. Now, the question is, are these Rose Izzo voters or Democrats disenchanted with Carney’s Carper-Junior schtick? I think its the latter, as I doubt Rose Izzo will make much of an impact in her primary with Kovach.
By the way, has Tom Kovach filed yet? I just checked and he has not. July 10 is coming up. Very soon. What is he waiting for? Perhaps he has, or is in the process of, changing his mind. The freak show that is sure to be the Gordon v. Clark slugfest in the County Executive race will surely produce a winner that will be so damaged that a credible Republican can win. Tom Kovach is what passes for a credible Republican these days. Plus, he is currently the County Council President. He has name recognition. Indeed, if an untainted Husband or Shahan emerge as the primary victor, I’d say Kovach may still have an edge over those two.
When you think about it, it makes so much more sense for Kovach to make a play for the County Executive race. If he wins that, he is then set up to run in 2016 for Governor. On the flip side, if he continues his run against Carney, he will lose, and by a two time loser in a general election (remember Kovach has only won office in special elections), thus damaging his viability.
I was one of the “neither” votes. My motives were this. Carney is just another in a long line of fungus-like delaware politicians like Castle, and Carper… possible Coons… in addition for never voting for another person who’s surname starts with “C”, I think it’s time we cut off this line. Surrender a seat to the republicans to screw up and then come back with someone new. Is party loyalty so important that we should keep electing Dingbats? that thinking got us into the Clarke/Gordon mess we’re in.
I think the GOP is screwed here. They want Kovach to run because they want to keep the appearance up that they are seriously contesting Federal positions after the O’Donnell-Urkle debacles, and–as you said–Kovach is among the handful of people who qualify as credible Republicans. Problem is, he has no name recognition at all beyond county politics, and they’d like to have him running to win in a couple of years. This is normally where you’d pull somebody off the bench, like Coons was supposed to play the role against Castle, to take one for the team while building name recognition.
Problem: no GOP bench exists. (Thanks, Mike Castle, is what Dems should be saying, since he never built one.)
So they either sacrifice Kovach too early, and resign themselves to not getting back in the game until 2018 or even 2020, or they run Izzo and watch her collect below 30%, which might have the same effect.
Rose Izzo’s primary vote totals are microscopic.
‘They’ aren’t going to run Rose Izzo. Izzo wins an R primary only if there is no other name on the ballot.
With Kovach, the R’s would have had a chance to win NCC exec. Where he could hire a bunch of people who might one day be part of an R bench.
If he switches now though, he just looks so…craven. He’s fast approaching irrelevance.
Here’s the thing, if the GOP wants to rebuild the state party, they will throw everything they have into the NCCo. Exec race. Kovach does have a chance to win that. If they lose, they are no worse off. If they win, they have a credible candidate in 2016 for Governor who can build a power base and a bench.
Even more, the NCCo Exec Race is one where the GOP can legitimately make the Ds sweat for a win. A race where the GOP can actually make the Ds engage has to be good for GOP team building.
Do they want it that badly, though?
NCC is where the rubber meets the road, tax wise. The guy holding the bag there gets to preside over real estate and school hikes, or he can’t provide services. If I was an ambitious R looking to go statewide, I might leave the D’s there for another go-round so I could run closer to tcot in the general.
All I think is the GOP is seriously screwed. They are throwing away their only bench candidate in a losing race against Carney. Kovach probably could’ve won NCCo Exec race against either Clark or Gordon and he would’ve been a shoe-in for re-election I think. Instead he’s going to be a 2-time general election loser. Who will be left? Run Copeland again? Is Bonini their only possibility?
I don’t think Kovach would win County Exec… Gordon and him would basically run on the EXACT same principles (Gordon’s already saying the same things Kovach has been as Council Pres about the Clark Administration). I think Gordon’s going to win, and should it come down to him vs Kovach, I think Gordon, the Democrat, would take NCCo.
The GOP is making a good move with Kovach. Carney is at his weakest this early on, and if Kovach didn’t run here, where else would he have? He is the GOP’s only viable candidate, and if he won 30% on our own website… I still think he has a chance unless Carney steps up. Even if Kovach doesn’t win, this will be a close race and get him name recognition for a future race. Btw – the GOP will never run Izzo, hence why they endorsed Kovach. At least they’re learning to be more sensible with their candidates this run around…
El Sumnambulo, doesn’t the endorsed Republican candidate for County Executive (that’s me) even get a mention of having ANY chance this Fall? (just kidding!)
There was a public candidate “meet and greet” hosted last night by the First State Patriots down in Middletown and attendance was just about 100 people. It was a great opportunity for folks to hear from many of the US Senate (Carper couldn’t attend), US Representative, (Carney couldn’t attend), and the NCC County Executive (Clark & Husband didn’t respond). By the way, Carper and Carney both agreed to attend a future “meet and greet” that the First State Patriots plan to hold.
There were some good moments from Alex Pires and Kevin Wade. Alex “called out” the DNC videographer “that’s been following (him)me around for a few weeks”, etc. and basically told him he wasn’t afraid of him and to keep filming, etc. Some good points were made in the Congressional presentations, as well as with the County Executive candidates Gordon, Shahan and (yours truly), in their general comments and in response to audience questions. There were also a couple of good Green Pary/Independent candidates that had some rather intesting comments about unions and bailouts, etc.
Unfortunately, as usually happens, too much time got eaten up by the Senate and Congessional portions, so by the time the County Executive folks got up, there wasn’t really enough time to get into too many questions or go into the issues. But it was still a good night in all and well worth the time for all those the candidates that showed up and for those in the audience.
I expect more of the “Neither” votes were straight up disenchanted people who really wouldn’t vote for any of the available candidates, or maybe Scott Gesty supporters (like myself) or Green Party candidate Bernie August supporters. Ms. Izzo may have accounted for a few of the “Neither” votes, but based on the sample likely to be gathered on this site, probably not many of them.
As for Kovach filing, it certainly makes more sense for him to stay at the county level this time around. I wouldn’t want to step up to be the DEGOP’s sacrificial lamb if someone else already chipped in the $3480 and I’d have to primary them for the privilege of losing.
Good point, Mark.
Once you get out there and develop some name recognition, you could have a chance. The very fact that I forgot you were in the race suggests that building name recognition should start yesterday (and suggests my memory isn’t what it used to be). Oh, and filing wouldn’t hurt, either. Oh, and attending meetings held by the First State Patriots doesn’t necessarily excite people like me who otherwise might be inclined to vote for you.
Good points all and added to my “to-do” list. But to be fair, the First State Patriots did invite all candidates; Dem’s, Rep’s, and Ind & Green, etc. to participate and their doors were open to the general public to attend, so my not going wouldn’t have been a good idea, as even Tom Gordon and Bill Shahan attended.
I’d have loved to been able to attend the Progressive Dem’s candidate forum/meeting a few weeks back just to hear the candidates speak, but was told that meeting was only for registered Dems. I’ll be filing (and sending in the check for $5677) in a few weeks, but in the meantime will try to get some attention (not that easy with the News Journal – just look at how they listed the unopposed “R’s” in their voter guide) Not quite the same level of placement as the other candidates on the Dem side. Just noting the sight/slant in making it not as easy to compare (or find) the other options for voters using the guide.
Bonini is done, at least for a while, because of his defection during the DeLuca-Katz battle. The Republicans had a chance to have some voice in state government outside the auditor’s office and Bonini robbed them of it.
Kovach probably prefers gambling on a high office. If he loses he will go into the private sector, make a ton of money and then return to politics in 2016 with statewide name recognition. I don’t think he would be interested in being county executive for four years given the type of issues that position deals with.