Arizona voters in Gabby Giffords’ former district held to the polls today in a special election to name her replacement. The winner today will serve out the remainder of the House term, or until January 3, 2013. The candidates are Giffords’ 2010 Republican opponent, Jesse Kelly, and a former aide, Ron Barber (D). As you will see below, PPP has come out with an election eve poll showing Barber leading by 12. I will be surprised if it is a blowout like that, but we will see.
“If Democrats do win Tuesday, it’s going to be in large part because they defined Kelly early and successfully as being anti-Medicare and anti-Social Security in the 11th-oldest district in the country — in large part by running footage and quotes of Kelly himself talking about getting rid of the entitlements.”
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (TIPP for Christian Science Monitor and Investors Business Daily): Obama 46, Romney 42
NORTH DAKOTA–PRESIDENT (Mason Dixon): Romney 52, Obama 39
No surprise here, Romney leads this red state by 13. It remains a strong red state.
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 46, Romney 40
The state goes back to Lean Obama status as Obama’s lead is 6 points in this poll, rather than 10.
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Romney 48, Obama 46
This state remains a toss up.
Here is an update to our map:
Remember, dark red is Strong Romney, light red is Lean Romney, yellow is Toss Up, light blue is Lean Obama, and dark blue is Strong Obama.
ARIZONA–HOUSE–8TH DISTRICT (PPP): Ron Barber (D) 53, Jesse Kelly (R) 41, Charlie Manolakis (G) 4
NEW YORK–SENATOR (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63, Bob Turner (R) 25; Gillibrand 65, George Maragos (R) 23; Gillibrand 65, Wendy Long (R) 22