The Polling Report [6.20.12]

So, I have decided to start counting Rasmussen’s polling in our Electoral College Map. Why? Well, they haven’t woken up and decided to be a nonpartisan and unbiased polling outfit. But as Markos Moulitsas says, looking at Rasmussen gives us a sense of the worst case scenario, for every Rasmussen poll adds about 4-5 points on average to the Republican total. So keep that in mind. If Obama is down by 3 in a Rasmussen poll, he is really up by 1 or 2. If he is up by 4, it is really a blowout in his direction.

So by doing that, we get a changed map, and you will see that below. The map will now include recent Rasmussen polls in Missouri (changing it to a Lean Romney state), Iowa (changing it to toss up status), Wisconsin (changing it to toss up status) and Michigan (moving it to Lean Obama status). Meanwhile, new polls in Colorado and Arizona moves the former in Lean Obama category, and the latter to toss up territory.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Bloomberg): Obama 53, Romney 40
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46

Mark Blumenthal on why Gallup underestimates Obama’s support: “The misses were typically small — usually within a single percentage point, although sometimes slightly bigger — but they made a consistent impact on the non-white composition of Gallup’s samples. Instead of achieving the target of 12.1 percent black set by the March 2011 CPS, the average across the seven surveys was 11.3 percent black. Instead of hitting the CPS target of 13.7 percent Hispanic, the seven surveys averaged just 12.4 percent Hispanic.” But he notes the “real story here is less about Gallup than about the new reality of public opinion polling. Sophisticated random samples, live interviews and rigorous calling procedures alone can no longer guarantee accurate results. Today’s rapidly declining response rates require more weighting than ever before to correct demographic skews, a phenomenon that places growing stress on previously reliable weighting procedures.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
MAINE–PRESIDENT (MassINC for WBUR): Obama 48, Romney 34

Maine remains a strong Obama state.

COLORADO–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 42

Colorado finally moves from toss up status to Lean Obama status. From the PPP: “When you look at all of our Colorado polling this cycle here’s the big picture: Obama’s a definite favorite to win the state again this year, but it will probably be by a more moderate margin than in 2008.”

ARIZONA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 46

This poll places Arizona into the toss cup category.

So here is the new map:

Obama 269, Romney 180, Toss up 89

MAINE–SENATOR (MassINC for WBUR): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 23, Cynthia Dill (D) 9
MICHIGAN–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 48, Pete Hoesktra (R) 39; Stabenow 48, Clark Durant (R) 37
WASHINGTON–GOVERNOR (Elway Poll): Rob McKenna (R) 42, Jay Inslee (D) 40
MAINE–GAY MARRIAGE (WBUR Poll): 55% support making gay marriage legal, with just 36% opposed.

Key findings: 68% of Democrats and 59% of independents favor the measure, but only 36% of Republicans would approve the new law.

WASHINGTON–GAY MARRIAGE (PPP): A referendum approving marriage equality is approved by 51% support, with 42 opposed.

The pollster delved further and gave respondents three choices: 47 percent said they would favor same-sex marriage, 30 percent opted for the state’s present civil unions “everything but marriage” law; and just 21 percent said they would give no legal recognition to same-sex couples.

NATIONAL–IMMIGRATION (Bloomberg):64% of likely voters surveyed after Obama’s June 15 announcement said they agreed with the policy, while 30 percent said they disagreed. Independents backed the decision by better than a two-to-one margin.
NATIONAL–OPINIONS ON THE SUPREME COURT (PPP): 56% believe the Court has become more partisan since 2000. 31% think it is about the same. 9% say less.