The Polling Report [7.12.12]

We finally have some new state polls today!! Obama breaks out to substantial leads in Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; keeps a landslide lead in Maine and New Mexico, and takes a slim lead in North Carolina and Florida, Meanwhile, the national polls show either a tied race, a small lead for Obama or a large lead for Obama.

This changes our map just a little bit, as North Carolina moves from Slim Romney to Slim Obama. Otherwise, everything stays the same.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama 47, Romney 47

Obama also continues to prevail in expectations: Despite his troubles, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that Americans by 58-34 percent expect him ultimately to defeat Romney and win a second term. That’s Obama’s best on this gauge to date (previously measured against “the Republican nominee”), a sharp difference from last October, when, with economic discontent at a higher pitch, 55 percent thought Obama would lose. Today, even among Romney’s supporters, a quarter think Obama will win.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 46, Romney 43

Driven by a yawning marriage gap, and a 2-1 lead among single women, President Barack Obama gets 46 percent of American voters to 43 percent for Gov. Mitt Romney, largely on the support of singles, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Married voters back Romney 51 – 38 percent, while unmarried voters back President Obama 54 – 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among married voters, Romney leads 54 – 35 percent among men and 49 – 42 percent among women. Among single voters, Obama leads 47 – 38 percent among men and 60 – 31 percent among women.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 49, Romney 43

President Barack Obama expanded his lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney to 6 percentage points in the White House race this month as voters became slightly more optimistic about the economy, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov): Romney 44, Obama 43

COLORADO–PRESIDENT (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama 49, Romney 42

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama 48, Romney 44

NEW MEXICO–PRESIDENT (We Ask America—R): Obama 51, Romney 40

OHIO-

Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama 48, Romney 41

PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA—D): Obama 49, Romney 40

PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (PENNSYLVANIA (We Ask America—R): Obama 47, Romney 40

I find it interesting that these two polls, one from an internal poll for an Obama Super PAC, and one for a Republican polling organization, have found basically the same result.

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (a href=”http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-leads-by-6-in-wisconsin.html”>PPP): Obama 50, Romney 44

Looks like Wisconsin has settled back down into reliable Democratic territory after the Walker recall.

NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 47, Romney 46

VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 50 Romney 42

MAINE–PRESIDENT (Critical Insights): Obama 49, Romney 35

Here is the new map with the new electoral numbers:

WISCONSIN–SENATOR (PPP): Eric Hovde (R) 45, Tammy Baldwin (D) 44; Baldwin 45, Tommy Thompson (D) 45; Baldwin 45, Mark Neumann (R) 41; Baldwin 46, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 42

WISCONSIN–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (PPP): Eric Hovde 31, Tommy Thompson 29, Mark Neumann 15, Jeff Fitzgerald 9

MAINE–SENATOR (Critical Insights): Angus King (I) 55, Charlie Summers (R) 27, Cynthia Dill (D) 7.

It appears to me that Democrats in the state have largely backed King, with only a few diehards supporting the actual noninee.

FLORIDA–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Connie Mack IV (R) 46, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 37

MAINE–MARRIAGE EQUALITY REFERENDUM (Critical Insights): Favor 57, Oppose 35

NEW MEXICO–SENATOR (FM3—D): Martin Heinrich (D) 49, Heather Wilson (R) 45

NEW MEXICO–SENATOR (We Ask America—R): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 42

NORTH CAROLINA–GOVERNOR (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 43, Walter Dalton (D) 36, Barbara Howe (L) 9

PENNSYLVANIA–SENATOR (We Ask America—R): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 53, Tom Smith (R) 39

VIRGINIA–SENATOR (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 44

On those Priorities USA polls conducted by Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang, the National Journal has more:

Priorities USA Action, a super PAC supporting President Obama’s reelection bid, released polls Wednesday that it says shows Romney’s favorability has declined in five key battleground states as a result of its $10 million ad campaign slamming his business record at the helm of Bain Capital.

The polls, conducted by Democratic firms Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, found that more likely voters have an unfavorable view of Romney than a favorable one in five swing states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Romney has an average favorable rating of only 36 percent in those states, with an average 43 percent unfavorable rating. Among independent voters, the ratio is worse: 30 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. Thirty-seven percent of those polled said Romney’s business record at Bain made them less likely to vote for him. Only 27 percent said it made them more likely…

Romney’s unfavorable rating was 9 points higher than his favorable rating in Priorities markets, but that gap was only 5 points where the ads were not shown. Among voters who had seen the Bain attacks, Obama had an 11-point advantage on the question of whether the candidate “is honest and someone you can trust.”

Bain is hurting Romney. They can deny it all they want.