The Polling Report [7.18.12]
I got tired of looking at Michigan tied and wondering why there had been no further polling out of it in a month. So I went to the TPM Poll Tracking site. There, I found that the most recent poll conducted on the presidential level in Michigan was one that I must have missed. The poll was conducted by Marist showing a 4 point lead for Obama, 47% to 43%. Thus, this will move the state to Slim Obama. And I also got tired of seeing Missouri shaded blue when I know Romney leads that state. The reason for that was that the most recent poll not conducted by Rasmussen was a poll done in March showing Obama ahead by 2. The current TPM Polling average for the state is Romney ahead by 4. So we are going to go with that for now, and that changes Missouri to Slim Romney. We also have new polls today out of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire and New York. Our map now looks like this:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 48 Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Marist for McClatchy): Obama 48, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 45
IOWA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 43
Finally a poll there to break the tie. The state moves to Lean Obama.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 49, Romney 45
The state moves to Slim Obama.
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT (Siena College): Obama 61, Romney 34
COLORADO–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Obama 45, Romney 44
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Romney 48, Obama 45
And we just had a poll yesterday showing a one point lead for Obama. Such is life in a swing state.
OHIO–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Obama 48, Romney 45
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Obama 46, Romney 44
NEW MEXICO–SENATOR (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 48, Heather Wilson (R) 43
NEW YORK–SENATOR (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 62, Wendy Long (R) 25
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 47, Joe Kyrillos (R) 34.
I think you’re wrong about Missouri, and I think the president should invest in Missouri whatever he’s putting into Arizona. Missouri is a perpetual swing state, and opening more field offices will help Claire McCaskill, who we need to hold the Senate.
Also, Romney’s campaign symbol looks like a bunch of slithering snakes, which I find very appropriate. I also like how the left side points up and the right side points down, as part of their “Why choose the lesser evil?” platform.
Nate Silver at 538 has Missouri at 79% probability for Romney.
“Claire McCaskill, who we need to hold the Senate.”
we’ll hold the senate. we NEED less conservadems. I likED Sen McCaskill for a little while, but she cant seem to shake… or is unwilling to shake… her conservative overlords. let ehr fall to a teabagger and let MO get embarassed for 6 years.
I also dont think Obama should be bothering with AZ. It would be a wonderful emotional victory, but he doesnt need it, and that money can go to VA, Fl, OH, MI…. get those, and it doesnt even matter if he’s taken off the ballot in Crazyland.
I’m always torn by wanting to punish conservadem Senators vs. needing to hold the Senate. The Supreme Court argument usually wins out.
But this cycle, it is especially easy to support conservadems. Because Obama doesn’t need their votes to implement his tax plan (i.e., full expiration). So unlike other years, this year conservadems won’t pose the obstacle they normally do. As long as Obama doesn’t cave on taxes, conservadems are irrelevant this year (so is the entire Congress).
And as Patty Murray points out, after full expiration, every tax bill is a tax cut bill. So in 2013 conservadems are more likely to get on board with the Democratic version of tax cuts.
I actually agree with Puck on everything he just said. Cue the apocalypse.
You don’t win ground by standing in your castle thumping your chest. I say take fight to Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina. Must be the Dean in me.
Claire ain’t gonna filibuster an extension of middle-class tax cuts only. And she’s way more in touch with her constituents than Tom Crapper.