The Polling Report [7.30.12]
When you take a few days off the polls pile up. Here are all the state polls released over the last five days. You’ll see movement to deeper shades of red in Missouri, and movement in the other direction to deeper shades of blue in Michigan and Ohio. But with all the polls we got below, not one state changed sides. The electoral vote margins are unchanged since our last polling report.
NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (YouGov): Romney 45, Obama 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Hart and McInturff for NBC News/Wall Street Journal): Obama 49, Romney 43
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 46, Romney 46
STATE POLLS
NORTH DAKOTA–PRESIDENT (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Romney 54, Obama 35
The state stays as Strong Romney
OHIO–PRESIDENT (We Ask America—R): Obama 48, Romney 40
The state moves further to the left and is now a Lean Obama state.
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 46
Too bad we don’t count Rasmussen
ILLINOIS–PRESIDENT (Ipsos for Crain’s Business Journal): Obama 51, Romney 31
Why are we polling Illinois? As much of a waste of money as polling California. Illinois remains Strong Obama
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (We Ask America—R): Romney 49, Obama 40
This poll confirms what I long suspected. Missouri is now Lean Romney.
NEVADA–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 45
Too bad we don’t count Rasmussen. Not that it would change the map anyway.
NEW JERSEY–PRESIDENT (Monmouth): Obama 51, Romney 38
Again, why are people wasting time and money polling New Jersey? I guess Republicans aways think they have a chance in this state due to Chris Christie and 9/11, but on the federal level it has been a strong Democratic state since 1992.
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 39
This poll moves Michigan to Strong Obama status. However, Michigan has more of a Lean feel. I am sure another poll will confirm that.
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 32
And New York remains a Strong Obama state.
PENNSYLVANIA –PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
Pennsylvania remains in the Lean Obama column, as Obama has a 6 point lead.
GOVERNOR POLLS
NORTH CAROLINA–GOVERNOR (Garin-Hart-Yang for NC Citizens for Progress): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 39
WASHINGTON–GOVERNOR (Elway): Jay Inslee (D) 43, Rob McKenna (R) 36
SENATOR POLLS
NEVADA–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 51, Shelley Berkley (D) 42
NORTH DAKOTA–SENATOR (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 50, Rick Berg (R) 44
HAWAII–SENATOR (Mellman Group for the DSCC): Mazie Hirono (D) 52, Linda Lingle (R) 33
HAWAII–SENATOR (Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Mazie Hirono (D) 58, Linda Lingle (R) 39; Ed Case (D) 56, Lingle 38
MICHIGAN–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38; Stabenow 51, Clark Durant (R) 34
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR (Monmouth): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) 42, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32
PENNSYLVANIA–SENATOR (PPP): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 36
MASSACHUSETTS–SENATOR (MassINC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 40, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38
