I have gone through all the latest national and state polls from the past week, and they are below. In some of the states, you will see that the trend is to Romney as last week was his bounce week from his choice of Paul Ryan as the next losing Republican Vice Presidential candidate. Yet, the bounce week is over and Obama remains in a dominant position:
Meanwhile, in the Rape State of Missouri, a new SurveyUSA poll in Missouri finds that 54%, including a majority of men and women, say Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO) should quit the U.S. Senate race and allow another Republican to run in his place while 35% say Akin should stay in the race against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO).
“A large majority, 76%, do not share Akin’s views on rape and pregnancy. But it is important to note that 13% do share his views, including 16% of pro-life voters, 19% of conservatives and 24% of African Americans. Akin says that he mis-spoke. But 55% in Missouri don’t buy it.”
That leads us to this:
MISSOURI–SENATE (PPP): Akin, 44, McCaskill 43
Disappointed that McCaskill has not vaulted to a 40 point lead? Don’t be. Josh Marshall at TPM:
Surprised? I can’t say I am. And you shouldn’t be either. Don’t underestimate partisan division and affiliation, the fact that Akin’s views aren’t that odd or disagreeable to a lot of people and the simple fact that people don’t change their minds that easily in 24 hours. But … this is a poll that only Claire McCaskill could love.
What do we know so far? We know that the entire institutional GOP wants Akin out right now. We know Akin doesn’t want to leave. Now you have a poll that says he’s at least nominally still in the lead and that the entire controversy has had zero effect on Akin’s standing in the race. I was just tweeting back and forth with GOP uber-consultant Alex Castellanos who says this kind of news takes more than 24 hours to sink in. And he’s right. But you certainly can’t expect Akin and the family members running his campaign to make that adverse inference against himself. Having seen GOP luminaries nationwide spend the last 36 hours tearing off his head and crapping down his neck, far more likely Akin says wait, I could still win and f’ all of those folks telling me to give up what I fought so hard to win.
Let’s move on to the other races:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Monmouth ): Obama-Biden 45, Romney-Ryan 41
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 45
BATTLEGROUND STATES–PRESIDENT (USA Today/Gallup): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 44
“Despite airing millions of dollars in TV ads and taking a high-profile trip abroad, Romney has failed to budge in the swing states, stuck at 44% or 45% since April. In that time, Obama has maintained a steady 47% despite a string of disappointing monthly jobs reports and an 8.3% national unemployment rate.”
OKLAHOMA–PRESIDENT (Sooner Poll): Romney-Ryan 58, Obama-Biden 29
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA): Romney-Ryan 45, Obama-Biden 44
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Romney-Ryan 48, Obama-Biden 47
This Purple Strategies poll on August 14 was the last non-Rasmussen and non-outrageously flawed poll from Florida.
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Romney-Ryan 48, Obama-Biden 45
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Franklin & Marshall): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 42
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 45
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT (Mitchell Research): Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 44
OHIO–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Romney-Ryan 46, Obama-Biden 44
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (CNN): Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 45
COLORADO–PRESIDENT (Purple Strategies): Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 46