The big poll from yesterday was the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, that found that, despite Mitt Romney’s choice of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, the race remains unchanged. The poll found Obama leading Romney 48 to 44, but the more interesting result are that Obama leads by 22 points on the question about which candidate cares about average people. Further, the GOP’s favorability gap is -9 (36% favorable, 45% unfavorable) while the Dems are at +2 (42% favorable, 40% unfavorable). That’s not good for Republicans. These are the same numbers from prior wave years in 2006 and 2008.
Here is our new map, reflecting changes from new polls in Virginia and Wisconsin:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (AP/GfK): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney-Ryan 47, Obama-Biden 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama-Biden 48, Romney-Ryan 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rassmussen Tracking): Romney-Ryan 45, Obama-Biden 44
NEW YORK–PRESIDENT (Siena College): Obama-Biden 62, Romney-Ryan 33
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 50, Romney-Ryan 45
This changes the swingiest of swing states back to Lean Obama from Slim Romney (that sounds like a Rapper name). Interestingly, Virgil Goode, an insane fascist running on the Constitution Party ticket in Virginia was included in one question in PPP’s poll, and when he was included, Obama’s lead increases to 8 (Obama 50, Romney 42, Goode 4
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46
If there is one place that the Ryan pick helped Romney it is in Wisconsin. In the end, Obama will win it, but it is a swing state that shouldn’t be.
MA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 44
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 47, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 43
NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 65, Wendy Long (R) 22