The Polling Report [8.28.12]

We are now seeing some polls switch over to their “Likely voter” screens. I hate “Likely Voter” screens because it allows whatever organization to play with the numbers even more than when they play with the demographics. Further, “Likely Voter” screens are biased towards Republicans.

Nate Silver:

In the past eight presidential election cycles or so, the Republican candidate has done a net of about two percentage points better on average in likely voter polls than in registered voter polls. That is, if the Republican had a four percentage point lead in a poll of registered voters, it might be inferred that he had a six percentage point lead among likely voters instead. This historical trend is probably not simply a statistical fluke, and instead reflects the fact that the demographic groups that tend to vote Republican — for instance, older and wealthier voters — tend to be more likely to vote as well.

However, this advantage can vary a bit from election to election. Sometimes, there is almost no difference between registered and likely votes. In other cases, it can give the Republican candidate an advantage of five percentage points or even more.

Since who turns out from election to election varies wildly, I think Likely Voter Screens based on prior elections are almost always inaccurate. Thus, I prefer, when given a choice between Registered Voters and Likely Voters, to go with Registered Voters. Unfortunately, as the election draws near, all polling outfits and media organizations switch over to their own Likely Voter screen. C’est la vie.

The changes in our map this time are from new polls in Ohio and Michigan which show each state a tie, while we have Florida getting bluer.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (ABC/Washington Post ): Romney-Ryan 47, Obama-Biden 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney-Ryan 47, Obama-Biden 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Resurgent Republic (Republican) ): Obama-Biden 46, Romney-Ryan 45
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Tarrance Group): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46
NATIONAL—PRESIDENT (CBS News): Obama-Biden 46, Romney-Ryan 45

Key finding: “Only 41% of Americans said Romney understands their needs and problems, compared to 54% who feel Mr. Obama understands their needs and problems.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama-Biden 52, Romney 43 (Registered Voters); Obama-Biden 49, Romney-Ryan 47 (Likely Voters)
CALIFORNIA–PRESIDENT (USC School of Education): Obama-Biden 56, Romney-Ryan 33
COLORADO–PRESIDENT (Keating/OnSight (Democratic)): Obama-Biden 48, Romney-Ryan 44
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (Mason Dixon): Romney-Ryan 50, Obama-Biden 43
MISSOURI–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 46

Too bad we don’t count Rasmussen. I would have liked to paint Missouri blue. Alas, even this result is as a result of Scott Rasmussen’s trickery. You see, as an Establishment Republican, Rasmussen wanted to get Todd Akin out of the race, so he manufactured a poll showing him losing by 10 to Claire McCaskill. The side affect to that is this poll showing Obama winning. So don’t believe. Yes, McCaskill is winning now, but not by 10. And yes, Romney is winning Missouri, most likely by the margins we see in the Mason Dixon poll.

VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Tied with 47 each.

Too bad we don’t count Rasmussen.

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama-Biden 51, Romney-Ryan 42 (Registered Voters); Obama-Biden 50, Romney-Ryan 46 (Likely Voters)

Over at Daily Kos, they discuss the internals which show Mitt Romney is only leading the 50 and older age group by 2 points, 49-47, which is horrible news for the Romney campaign. Why?

Why are those numbers a problem for the GOP, given that they lead Obama with older voters? Because Republicans need to crush it with seniors in order to be competitive and to counterbalance expected losses among younger voters.

In 2008, John McCain beat Obama in Florida among voters older than 65 by a 53-45 margin. Obama won voters 50-64 by a 10-point margin, 54-44. Add them up, and Obama won the 50+ cohort by a couple of points.

Two years later, however, seniors flocked to the GOP. In Florida, Republican Rick Scott won with 51 percent of the senior vote to 47 percent for his Democratic opposition. Nationally, voters over the age of 50 gave Republicans an even more dramatic 55-43 victory over Democrats. Thanks to depressed turnout among younger voters, those older voters fueled the GOP’s landslide victories in 2010.

If Republicans want to win big, they need to maintain that edge among seniors, both in Florida and nationally. This latest CNN poll shows that they are falling short of their 2010 mark, and are barely overperforming their 2008 numbers when Obama won the state by three points. Throw in demographic shift (older anti-Obama voters have died off, younger pro-Obama voters are replacing them, and the share of the white vote is decreasing), and it’s not enough to close the gap to Obama.

In other words, as new polling comes out, keep an eye on those senior numbers. They will go a long way toward telling us just how bad a year Republicans are about to have.

MASSACHUSETTS–PRESIDENT (Kimball Consulting (Republican) ): Obama-Biden 52, Romney-Ryan 41
CONNECTICUT—PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama-Biden 52, Romney-Ryan 45
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT (Mitchell Research): Tied at 47 each
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama-Biden 48, Romney-Ryan 46 (Registered Voters); Romney-Ryan 48, Obama-Biden 47 (Likely Voters)

Here is where the problem with the Likely Voter issue comes into play. As I stated above, when we have a choice, we are going with Registered Voter screens. Thus, this state stays as Slim Obama as a result.

OHIO–PRESIDENT (Columbus Disptach): Tied at 45 each.
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama-Biden 51, Romney-Ryan 42