State House of Representatives:
RD 1 (D): While Victoria Kent shows promise as a first-time candidate, I look for Dennis P. Williams protege Charles Potter to win in Williams’ district. Former state rep Rourke Moore has been almost invisible. I’d encourage Kent to work on developing a bit more message discipline should she decide to seek office again. She has potential, but she’s not there yet.
RD 2 (D): Former State Rep. Arthur Scott challenges incumbent Stephanie Bolden. I think that Scott finds himself in something of the same time warp that has trapped Dave Brady. While there may be compelling reasons to defeat the incumbent, Scott hasn’t really made them. Bolden by a fairly comfortable margin.
RD 10 (D): Challenger Sean Matthews has earned at least one dubious distinction in his challenge to Dennis E. Williams: he’s come up with the absolute worst campaign signs of this season. He has ‘Sean’ in big snakelike letters with what looks like (I kid you not) the head of a snake at the top of the snakelike ‘S’. His last name is so small that you simply can’t read it when you drive past the signs, only if you’re stopped at a light. I was, and saw that what appears to be the snake’s head is actually a white star. Kids, I know my pro rasslin’, and I know that if your ring name is Sean the Snake, then you’re a heel, not a babyface. And, unless you’re Chris Christie, adopting a heel persona doesn’t win elections. Matthews turns out to be one of those young guys with ‘ants in his pants’ who should’ve waited. There was no raison d’etre for his candidacy in this Brandywine Hundred district. Williams wins handily.
RD 11 (D): Party insiders think that Lynne Newlin is likely to win the primary over David Brown in this newly-created district that straddles the Kent/New Castle County border. D’s also think that Newlin is the favorite to capture this seat in November.
RD 15 (D): I once thought that challenger James Burton could be an intriguing opponent for one of Dover’s nastiest, Rep. Val Longhurst, in this New Castle/Bear area district. Then I saw his campaign finance report. Longhurst easy.
RD 19 (D): An interesting matchup between longtime county open government advocate Bill Dunn and Red Clay school board member Kimberly Williams. Williams has the support of outgoing Speaker Bob Gilligan, and I think she’ll win a close battle. Her compelling personal story about how the recession has hit her family wouldn’t be so powerful if she hadn’t also displayed such empathy for people in the same position. There is a role for Bill Dunn to play in public service, and I know that his family has lived in this area for years. Voters win no matter how this comes out, but I think Williams has the edge.
RD 20 (D): Democrats think that Marie Mayor is one of their best newcomers of 2012, and who am I to argue? Should she win, her background in agritourism will provide a stark contrast to arrogant state cop Steve Smyk. And I think she wins in this Milton-area district. The other D’s are Thomas Jones and Lynn Rogers.
RD 22 (R): Two incumbents thrown together due to redistricting: Reps. Joe Miro and Nick Manolakos. Manolakos was just named the headmaster of Odyssey Charter School, and I think it’s good that he’ll have a job to fall back on. The conventional wisdom (meaning R’s who should know) is that Miro will win. We all know that the CW is often wrong, but I’m not about to substitute my less-informed opinion here. Miro wins the primary and effectively the election. He is getting up there, though…
RD 23 (D): A great three-way race to replace Rep. Terry Schooley. I think that Schooley’s staffer and former Newark councilman Jerry Grant will edge out PDD Chair Paul Baumbach by a slim margin. Claudia Bock’s candidacy seems to have faded. Baumbach’s great strength is knowing how to work the rules to his own advantage. This led to him getting the 23rd RD endorsement after the committee had effectively decided not to endorse. On the hustings, though, it’s tough to top Grant’s gregariousness and empathy, and Grant has actually helped many of these voters through the constituent services he provides.
RD 32 (D): OK, I give up. It sucks for me to have to predict this, but I think that opportunist Andria Viola Bennett defeats Bill McGlumphy in this Dover-area primary. Why? If you recall, McGlumphy retired from Dover City Council earlier this year, and it was not b/c he planned to run for this seat, he just was ready to retire. The Party got him to come out of retirement, and he thought he’d only have the November election to worry about. Enter the daughter of one of Delaware’s worst legislators (John Viola) and new wife of one of Delaware’s most-disgraced legislators (Brad Bennett). She’s running hard, and McGlumphy’s running like a guy who wishes he’d stayed retired. Jeez, I just might have to cut a check to the winner of the R Primary, who will be…
RD 32 (R): …former Kent County magistrate Ellis Parrott. Why am I so certain? Parrott’s opponent is Wil McVay, who as McVay will tell you, over and over again, is not really a Republican. Just another wannabe desperate for attention.
RD 39 (R): Incumbent Dan Short makes short work of Patrick Murray.
RD 40 (D): Ray Adkins defeats Benjamin Lowe for the right to be the sacrificial lamb (Biblical reference intentional) to the (extreme) right Rev. Timothy Dukes in this crimson red western Sussex district.
New Castle County:
County Executive: I think Tom Gordon wins, only b/c he has an established, if rather small, constituency of die-hard supporters. I have yet to detect any groundswell for Paul Clark, (What the bleep is a ‘groundswell’ anyway? Be right back…OK, looks like ‘groundswell’ is like a mini-tsunami, caused by a distant storm or earthquake.) or even a groundripple, for that matter, but lots of people reallyreally don’t want to vote for Gordon. If Bill Shahan had actually come out of the box stronger, he could have snuck up and won this thing. Who knows? In my fantasy scenario, Gordon and Clark continue to hurl stink bombs at each other, voters desert them both in droves, and Shahan pulls off the upset. Could happen, but likely won’t. Ladies and gentlemen, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
County Council President: Renee Taschner has been everywhere, and I’ve seen Chris Bullock nowhere. I just don’t see how Chris defeats this relentless campaigner.
County Council District 8 (D): John Cartier should defeat Richard Perillo comfortably. Perillo says he’s running because he’s not happy with Cartier’s constituent services, and Cartier sometimes overpromises. But he delivers more often than not.
Wilmington Mayoral Race:
This race gets more interesting by the day. I do think that the Williams campaign peaked early, and is struggling to recapture momentum. I think that, contrary to my initial impressions, Montgomery has made himself into a viable candidate. And I think that Kevin Kelley also could win, if things break right. However, and reserving the right to change this prediction before next Tuesday, I still think that the ‘calculus’ favors Dennis Williams, and that he will be effectively elected Mayor on Tuesday. It is not simply a calculus based on race, but rather based on the fact that his home north Wilmington turf traditionally turns out in greater numbers than other areas of the city. Montgomery could win if he effectively erodes Williams’ support and somehow can escape the shadow of Jim Baker. Kelley could win if he can effectively show that he’s the only non-Baker guy in the race as Williams acts more like Baker every day and Montgomery has been with Baker forever. No one will accuse the Kelley campaign of ‘peaking too soon’, the only question is whether it will peak at all. Since no candidate is likely to get over 40% of the vote, this race is still out there to be won. However, if the election were today, I think that Williams would win. Still almost a week to go, though…
I’m not touching the Wilmington or Sussex council races, and I know that there are readers with far more insight into those races than I could provide. Also, it goes w/o saying that I’m by no means all-knowing, and, in fact, I’m doing this in part to generate intelligent discussion of the various races. So please try to offer persuasive analysis that differs with mine. ‘Tick-tock’ is not persuasive analysis, in case you weren’t sure.