Bounce

Filed in National by on September 6, 2012

Moving the needle on Intrade….

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Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

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  1. Liberal Elite says:
    September 7, 2012 at 1:28 am

    Sorry. Not a bounce. Intrade is not a poll. It represents the collective assessment of many bettor’s long term assessment of of Obama’s chances. It is unlikely to drop back down after a few days as the polls will likely do.

    Obama has had a good two weeks at Intrade. This is mainly because many election prediction models are showing a rather difficult road ahead for Romney, and he’s simply running out of time. With the Dems making a spirited defense of the presidency, makes it that much harder for Romney to make up ground. Nate Silver (NYTimes) already has Obama at better than 3:1 odds and that was before the major DNC speeches.

    I fully expect Romney’s tax returns to be leaked (asa do many bettors). The news this week that someone has stolen them for ransom (that will not be paid) is likely a ruse to deflect blame from those who actually will do it. That will likely move the needle even more than any convention bounce… for those who like to see the GOP squirm, watch for it.

  2. Jason330 says:
    September 7, 2012 at 8:19 am

    True. Not a bounce per se. But if I’m a Republican I’m getting queazy. Also, I’m starting to wonder how much impact the top of the ticket will have on the down ticket races.

    A month ago I’d have thought it would be negligible, but who knows now.

  3. socialistic ben says:
    September 7, 2012 at 8:28 am

    Im gonna do what i did in 08′. Bet on the republican. That way, if Obama wins, oh well.. I lost some money, but the country is gonna be ok. If Rmoney wins, i can get a little consolation.

  4. puck says:
    September 7, 2012 at 8:33 am

    RMoney’s only option, which he was going to do anyway, is to unleash the torrents of PAC money with the most negative ads the world has ever seen, and more of them. That might work through brute force. But if we get steadily improving jobs reports like yesterday, it will have a hard time getting traction.

    Romney’s campaign depends on tearing down America, and the pessimistic candidate usually doesn’t win. The more negative he goes, the deeper a hole he is digging for himself. And I have never seen a more optimistic campaign than what Clinton, Biden, and Obama delivered this week.

  5. puck says:
    September 7, 2012 at 8:35 am

    Im gonna do what i did in 08′. Bet on the republican.

    Say it ain’t so, SB!

  6. socialistic ben says:
    September 7, 2012 at 8:49 am

    oh it’s so puck. think of it as a short-sell. I dont actually WANT the R to win, but it’s like throwin away a bet on the horse that is supposed to lose.

  7. Liberal Elite says:
    September 7, 2012 at 7:03 pm

    And now with the tepid jobs report (thanks to congress not passing any sort of jobs bill), he’s back to 58.0 in Intrade.

    The good news is that all three poll tracking firms see a good post convention bounce for Obama.

    Also, Nate Silver has Obama at nearly 4:1 odds this afternoon. With both OH and VA shaping up rather nicely for Obama, it could be all over folks.

  8. cassandra_m says:
    September 9, 2012 at 7:07 pm

    Princeton Election Consortium confirms that the GOP convention actually helped Obama — they got a negative bounce.

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