True or False? “Whoever wins the city, wins the (countywide) race”
The quote above is from New Castle County Council member Jea Street. In a August 9, 2012 News-Journal article about the City of Wilmington’s impact on the New Castle County Executive’s contest street implied that it is possible to win the City of Wilmington by such a large margin that the candidate could afford to lose suburban and rural New Castle County and still win.
It sounds good, but how true is it? at Politics by the Numbers Tobin crunches the numbers and looks at a some races that put the lie to Street’s axiom.
I do think the city turnout is going to help Gordon a good bit though.
I agree. Paul Clark is no Jack Markell (or even a Chip Flowers).
Thanks, Jason. I just posted a companion piece about how the Wilmington undervote (people skipping particular races despite voting for other races) is about twice as high as the suburabn undervote when it comes to the County Executive race, at least it was for 2004 & 2008.
false
You dont even write about Carper’s first primary in 20 years after years of making a case against him. Not even an inclusion of Spanarelli on the site? Did the unions get to you?!
Amazing,
Candidates often get into races for the first time thinking that having a candidacy by itself will make a difference. Spanarelli may be on the ballot, but he has shown no reason to consider him as a credible candidate. Also, complaining that no one takes you seriously does not result in one being taken seriously.
“the Wilmington undervote (people skipping particular races despite voting for other races) is about twice as high as the suburabn undervote when it comes to the County Executive race”
As these are County races, this is to be expected yet still interesting.
Does Wilm drop off across the board or do certain areas drop off more than others?
I think KWS must be counting on a win in Wilmington putting her over the top. She has absolutely no presence here in Newark and the suburbs. Not even any signs! I think I’ve only gotten two mailers from her, and they were just very recent. OTOH, I get a daily anti-Gordon and anti-Clark mailer. I’m so sick of that race. I also get a lot of phone calls, which I’m ignoring.