As you can see, the top 4 statewide races, (Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative) are all virtual locks for the Democrats. Sure, there is some uncertainty with Alex Pires in the race against Senator Carper, and if this was 2010, Carper might have been in real trouble. But considering that this is a Presidential year, and considering the anti-incumbent climate has died down, and considering Pires’ own horrible mistake pursuing rumors of Carper’s health, I no longer feel that this race will be competitive. Carper might not get 70% or 60%, but he will be in the mid to high 50’s. Wade and Pires will be the 20’s, and Groff will get the rest.
Congressman Carney should garner the same percentage of the vote (mid to high 50’s) against the dumbest man in Delaware politics, Tom Kovach. Kovach appears moderate and non-teabaggy enough to be competitive with Carney. But Carney, in the end, should have no trouble riding the coattails emnating from the top of the ticket.
Governor Markell and Lt. Governor Denn will easily defeat political newcomers Jeff Cragg and Cheryl Valenzuela. So easily that no more needs to be said on the topic.
The remaining statewide race, that of Insurance Commissioner, I am labeling a toss up for now. Yes, KWS will likely be swept back into office on Obama’s coattails just like in 2008, but I need to see how this race against Mobley plays out. The same is true for the New Castle County Executive. Gordon’s machine, and Obama’s coattails, will likely pave Gordon’s way back onto Commons Boulevard. But I want to see how this race against Republican Mark Blake plays out. In fact, I feel that this race has the potential to stay competitive given the hard feelings of the Anti-Gordon crowd. And if Mark Blake is a good guy as Nancy Willing says, maybe he will give Gordon a run for his money.
In the County Council President race, Republican Mike Protack has never won an election and he is not going to start now. Christopher Bullock will win.
Now, as we move into the General Assembly, I want to explain the title of this post. The 62 District Strategy. It is quite obviously a riff off of Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy, and that strategy was to never leave states or congressional races uncontested. Even if we lose a race in an inhospitable conservative district, we give the voters a choice, and maybe change their minds. And if you don’t contest a race, you limit your possibilities of growing your party and you limit your chances at winning.
In 2006 and 2008, as Democrats were trying to win back the majority in the State House of Representatives, it was clear that the Dems were limiting their options by not contesting races and allowing undeserving Republicans a free pass at reelection. Luckily, the state Dems learned the lesson and recruited candidates, and good ones, in nearly every race in 2008, and they won back the majority, and in 2010, defended that majority while contesting nearly every race. For you see, when you contest every race, you force the Republicans to defend their seats instead of just trying to take yours.
Look at all the black on that chart. In the Democratic column, you will see black 6 times out of 62 races. That’s actually very good. We Democrats are contesting 91% of the races in the General Assembly. And some of our black spaces are understandable, like the three downstate.
Some are not:
1) The RD12, where Debbie Capano Hudson is getting a pass! That’s the district that I just moved into. I guess I will have to run in 2014.
2) The RD21, where Mike Ramone is getting a pass because I hear some Democrats like him and thus forced Larry Peterson from the race.
3) The SD16, where Colin Bonini—Colin Bonini—is getting a pass!
Regardless, I prefer to be us rather than them. If you want to see what the death of a political party in a state looks like, then look at the Republican column. They are conceding 23 races before the election even begins. That is a full 37% of the races in the General Assembly. For a party out of the majority, that is no way to win back the majority.
If you need any proof of that, look at the Senate, the body that some, including myself, thought the GOP had a legitimate chance to take back control of this fall. The GOP is not running candidates against McDowell, Henry, Marshall, Blevins, Peterson, Hall-Long, McBride and Bushweller. That’s 8 seats!!! 8 seats!!! To win a majority in the 21 member Senate, you only need 11 members. All the Dems need to do now is win the Townsend-Queitsch race in SD11(which they will), the Sokola-Stritzinger race in SD8 (which they will), and the Ennis-Unruh race in SD14 (which they should). Indeed, if you add up all the red and yellow on the chart in the Senate, you only get 10 races. So if the Republicans in the Senate win all the races where they are favored, and then win all the toss up races where it is even money, they still won’t win the majority! And some of those toss up races are going to be tough for the GOP to win: the new 6th SD between Staton and Lopez will be the most contested race in the State; Senator Connor may be really in trouble in SD12 against Nicole Poore, and good ole Bob Venables is likely to frustrate the GOP one more time in SD21.
Jon Sigler, the GOP Chairman, will tell you that his party has a great chance to be in the majority, but in reality, he has done the bare minimum for his party to have a mathematical chance to win. Right now they have 8 seats. They need a net gain of 3 to win the majority to get to 11, and yet they are only contesting 13 total seats in the Senate. No room for error is there in the GOP plan.
And that’s not even considering the fact that the GOP is playing defense in 3 of its own races: SD5 (Cloutier), SD12 (the aforementioned Connor) and SD6 (the new seat currently held by Sorenson, who is retiring). Assuming that the GOP wins all three (and they won’t), they will have gained no ground. They are still stuck at 8 seats.
Sure, Greg Lavelle might knock of Mike Katz in SD4, and sure, it is possible that Bob Venables finally succumbs to demographics in conservative Sussex, but where is the third takeaway from the Democrats?
Ennis? Doubtful.
Evan Queitsch defeating Bryan Townsend? Hahahahahahaha
Sokola? Nope.
I guess it sounds like I am complaining, but I am not. I am happy that the GOP is falling apart and has no chance to win back the majority in the Senate. I guess I am just awed at all the incompetence.
So my final prediction on the Senate: I think, at this point, the ratio stays the same: 13 Democrats, 8 Republicans. I think Nicole Poore defeats Dori Connor for a Democratic gain, and I think Greg Lavelle defeats Mike Katz for a Republican gain. I predict a Lopez victory downstate, and I predict that once again, Cathy Cloutier and Bob Venables hang on.
Onto the House. The Dems currently have a 26-15 member advantage over the Republicans. In the House, you need 21 seats for a majority. To win back control of the chamber, the GOP would need to win 6 seats while defending all of theirs. But how have they handicapped themselves? Well, they have given the Dems a pass in 15 races. So, the Democrats already have 15 seats and will only have to win 6 out of the remaining 26 seats to retain the majority. Meanwhile, if you add up all the red and yellow in the column you will find that it totals only 19 seats. Thus, if the GOP successfully defends all of its current seats and wins all the toss up races, it will only win 19 seats. 2 short of the majority. And some of those toss ups are not really toss ups.
For example, the 19th and 23rd RDs. I listed them as toss ups only because we have brand new candidates in Kimberly Williams and Paul Baumbach running to replace longtime incumbents Bob Gilligan and Terry Schooley, respectively. Yet, these districts lean decidedly Democratic in their registrations, and both Williams and Baumbach are favored to win their general elections.
Are there any opportunities for GOP pickups? Sure. I can see Dennis E. Williams losing his rematch with Bob Rhodunda, given his poor performance in his primary with Sean Matthews. But then again, Rhodunda couldn’t beat Williams in the off year 2010 elections. How is he gonna beat Williams in a Presidential year?
But, to quote Vice President Biden, that is literally it. There are no other Republican pick up opportunities in the House.
Meanwhile, the Democrats can further expand their majority if they win the competitive races in the new 11th and 20th RDs, with Lynne Newlin and Marie Mayor, respectively. And I like their chances in both. There is also a reasonable chance, a small one, but a reasonable one, that former Rep. Shirley Price wins back her seat that Gerald Hocker is vacating for a promotion to the Senate. I think, in the end, Hocker protégé Ron Gray will win, but it will be competitive.
So, final prediction, time, I say the Democrats actually defend all their seats and win the new 11th and 20th, adding two seats to their majority for a 28-13 advantage.