We have a lot of polls, but nothing in a state changing from Romney to Obama or vice versa. Instead, we have a map that is getting darker in some expected sports and lighter in some unexpected spots. Meanwhile, we have a Fox News poll that is most likely being ignored on their own air.
Here is the map.
NATIONAL–Fox News: Obama 48, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
“The poll finds the president has a significant advantage on most issues and candidate traits. Voters trust Obama more than Romney on foreign policy (+15 points), education (+14 points), Medicare (+11 points), health care (+9 points) and terrorism (+8 points). Romney bests Obama outright on just one issue: cutting government spending (+13 points).”
NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 43
NATIONAL–Ipsos-Reuters: Obama 48, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 45
NATIONAL–YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 45
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–SurveyUSA: Obama 57, Romney 35
Strong Obama, as always. Who was our insane wingnut commenter that said Romney was going to win California? Was that you Rusty? Yeah, how is that 22 point lead treating ya?
MICHIGAN–EPIC-MRA: Obama 47, Romney 37
This is our most traveled state this election. Michigan has been Slim Romney, Tied, Slim Obama, Lean Obama and now, it is back to Strong Obama.
MONTANA–PPP: Romney 46, Obama 43, Johnson 7
Since Gary Johnson is on the ballot in Montana, I am going with the numbers that include him. Now, I will be shocked if the Libertarian gets that high of a number. But 5% cannot be ruled out. Remember, Bill Clinton won Montana once because of a strong third party challenge. Can history repeat?
NEW MEXICO–PPP: Obama 53, Romney 42
Back to Strong Obama.
TEXAS–WPA Opinion Research–R: Romney 55, Obama 40
Back to Strong Romney. We were stuck with a poll for months that has Romney’s lead under 10 points.
WASHINGTON–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Obama 53, Romney 42
Strong Obama
ARIZONA–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Romney 53, Obama 44
Looks like Arizona was a pipe dream this year. Sure, this poll moves AZ from Strong to Lean Romney, but there is no doubt that Romney will win it.
FLORIDA–SurveyUSA: Obama 48, Romney 44
Slim Obama, and will likely stay that way up until the election.
MINNESOTA–SurveyUSA: Obama 50, Romney 40
This moves MN back to Strong Obama territory.
SENATE POLLS
ARIZONA–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 43
FLORIDA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 36
OHIO–PPP: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 40
CALIFORNIA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 37
MICHIGAN–EPIC-MRA: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38
MINNESOTA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 34
MINNESOTA–Wenzel Strategies for the Bills campaign: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 52, Kurt Bills (R) 38
MONTANA–PPP: Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8
NEW MEXICO–PPP: Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 41
GOVERNOR POLLS
WASHINGTON–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42
WASHINGTON–SurveyUSA: Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 44