A DIY “Most Intriguing Races For November” Thread
What do you think will be Delaware’s most intriguing races this November? I’ve come up with some early nominees. I’d like you to share your thoughts on my choices and on races that you think I’ve overlooked. At some point soon, I’ll be writing a detailed analysis of my top 10, but I’m not ready yet. Help me focus! Here’s my initial list:
Insurance Commissioner: IC Karen Weldin Stewart vs. Ben Mobley
SD 4: Sen. Michael Katz vs. Greg Lavelle
SD 5: Sen. Cathy Cloutier vs. Chris Counihan
SD 6: Ernesto Lopez vs. Andy Staton
SD 12: Sen. Dori Connor vs. Nicole Poore
SD 21: Sen. Bob Venables vs. Bryant Richardson
RD 10: Rep. Dennis E. Williams vs. Robert Rhodunda
RD 11: Lynne Newlin vs. Jeffrey Spiegelman
RD 20: Marie Mayor vs. Steve Smyk
RD 29: Rep. Lincoln Willis vs. Trey Paradee
RD 32: Andria Viola Bennett vs. Ellis Parrott
RD 37: Rep. Ruth Briggs King vs. Beth McGinn
RD 38: Shirley Price vs. Ronald Gray
SC 3: Joan Deaver vs. Don Ayotte
Time’s yours.
Shirley price will wind up winning this by a comfortable margin. She has the “name ” reginition and she has actually worked in Dover on her 4 issues. She has a proven record and will hit the ground running.
SD 6 is going to be the hottest race going. Lopez and Staton are both young and energetic and passionate. It’s too bad we can’t have both. Each side is going to pour a ton of cash in, because whoever gets this seat is almost guaranteed to hold it for a long time. The district also will be a bellwether for the future of the state, with more non-natives moving in and voting.
SD 21 could be a problem. Venables hasn’t campaigned hard in years and is getting up there in age. Frankly, I was surprised that he’s running again after the boating accident. Bryant is very well known and respected for running the only decent newspaper in the area. Plus he has strong Christian fundie ties.
RD 20 is going to be a feces-flinging battle to the death. The homophobes are going to be out against Mayor like they were for John Brady. And Smyk is a fierce guy with lots of red-meat rhetoric. Plus he’s a trooper. However, the district includes Milton, which is a pretty gay-accepting place.
Take RD 38 off the list. Shirley Price is going to lose in a big way. She’s been off the radar for a decade, which is a lifetime in politics, especially in eastern Sussex. And Gray is going to have Hocker’s coattails, since the Democrats are only running a token for the Senate.
RD 39 could be interesting. RBK has the edge, but Pete, the sneaky bastard, redrew her district to include more manufactured housing, and McGinn hails from that community. So for once, there is a Democrat with a built-in constituency. RBK will carry Georgetown, though, and that area is going to turn out big for SD 19, on both sides. McGinn is going to have to campaign hard in that area to overcome local-gal status and name recognition.
Sussex Clerk of Peace isn’t on your list, and you might want to add it. Brady v. Witzke is a proxy fight over civil unions and gay rights in general. The Rs aren’t about to let a gay man into office to perform marriages and union ceremonies. They have a kid, as I understand it, running against Brady, much as they got Brad Layfield to primary him in one of his first races.
PS I call Pete a sneaky bastard with great admiration, not in a derogatory sense.
And by RD 39 I mean RD 37.
I am betting big on Shirley in my old district. I spent all 3 cycles working to beat her until it was accomplished in ’02. I now see the error of that and have provided my assistance as I can from 98 miles north. She is much better known and Ron makes watching paint dry look like being at the Super Bowl:). I know I missed all my predictions in the Primary…..sooooo
The 23rd will be tougher this year many Dems were re-districed into the 25th. The Reps seem to have a strong candidate. I still think Paul will win.
Joe: Did you ever run yourself or did I dream that up?
I actually like Alex Pires v TC in this category. Pires got off to the shakiest of shaky starts, and thinks that Newark is going to go his way, but his HUGE, GINORMOUS, CRAZY ASS BIG!! bill boards on Rt1 make me happy.
Also, Carper is running to be the bridge builder to GOP obstruction. I’d love ot see Pires catch fire.
1992 primary against George Howard, I was tricked into it:). I won the 2 ED’s on the other side of the river (Pot Nets, Oak Orchard) that are gone from the district. Got around 35% total.
I don’t know Jason. I saw your boy at the Hadassah debate. He won’t caucus with the D’s or the R’s; He doesn’t seem to have any message other than “Delaware sucks, Carper sucks, Vote for Me… I’m rich”
Maybe that works, but from the reaction of all those little old ladies who cornered him after the debate to tell him how disgusting he was, I don’t know how the public will gravitate to that message. He also called Delaware a “second class – nothing state” which even made Matt Denn roll his eyes.
Don’t know much about these southern picks, but I think Poore will be a solid pick up in the 12th and I the more I hear Ben Mobley, the more I like him.
Sussexwatcher I agree with most of your take, but I have to take a little issue with Milton being a “gay accepting place.” Milton has seen an influx of gay residents, that is true, but I don’t think it’s there in acceptance of gays the way Rehoboth and Lewes are. Most folks in the Milton area who will show up to vote will go for a trooper, even one as obnoxious as Smyk. I have generally felt better about Democratic chances for the new senate seat than for the RD20 seat, and Lopez has put that one into play for the GOP, too.
El Som
Add RD 23- McKeeney is right. decent R candidate makes that one a tad interesting, though longshot. Baumbach still very solid favorite.
Delete RD 38- Demographics make race brutal for Shirley Price,
and Hocker will have strong coattails as said above. R’s will be very strong in there.
Keep an eye on: RD 31- Jury still out on the young war vet Sam Chick v. Daryl Scott. Late entry but could run respectable in there if experienced folks support. Much better candidate than Poliquin, who had personal issues and stepped aside.
WWB:
Milton proper has elected at least two gay town council members over the last few years. Maybe the greater Milton area isn’t as accepting, but I stand by my assessment.
I live in the greater Milton area and have a significant other who works in the new home industry. I now there are more gays who are buying here in various locations, including Milton. No hard data since I don’t pay that much attention to who is straight or not. They seem to be primarily coming form NJ, No VA, and DC. And
Black Rock, Pires is hardly my boy. I just think it could be interesting if he manages to get some legitimate criticism to stick to Carper. This thread is about “intriguing races” – not merely potentially close races.
Dave, Keep ’em moving north. We need decent restaurants in Smyrna too.
HOCKER not as strong this time .”Castaways” development across from his Cedar Neck stores stirring up local vocal opposition .Over 100 attended ZONING meeting last week. You know Hocker .He never met a development he didn’t like .Especially one right across the street fron his hardware and grocery .Drill,baby,drill.
I did not include the Pires candidacy among the races I find most intriguing. Why?
Every time he does something smart to get my attention (I like the stickers in the News-Journal), he opens his mouth and says something totally off-the wall. I’ve wanted to take him seriously, but his own words just won’t let me.
I’m convinced Pires is running because he wants to throw the biggest election night party in Delaware history at the Rudder.
He has said nothing of substance in this campaign, certainly nothing to suggest that he really wants to be a senator.
First, it’s the mysterious Carper health issue.
Then, he supports term limits — so, if he wins, he doesn’t want to stick around.
He’s great for entertainment value, but he’s about as viable a candidate as Kevin Wade.
@jason–in the very unsubstantiated rumor category, I was told yesterday that the Pires people commissioned a poll that shows Carper hovering only around 40%, Pires in the low 30s, and Wade only in the mid-20s.
If–and it’s a big if–that has any basis in reality, then you might be getting your wish.
(and if Pires has any poll showing him with 10% of the vote, he’s in the UD debates)
Hahahahah…. I’ll believe that when I see it. If that were real, Pires would have stuck that on the front of the News Journal for a week.
Anyone with 700 bucks can commission a push poll of a few hundred folks and get any sort of result they want. That’s not an independent poll.
Alex Pires is a sleeze and everyone knows it. He’s like the last bar owner from the Independent Party of Delaware. Anyone remember Frank Infante?
That alleged poll is both a joke and a figment of someone’s imagination, most likely Pires.
Wow, Frank Infante. Just one more reason I LOVE this blog. I’ve forgotten Infante’s name…more times than I can remember.