The Polling Report

We have some new state polls out of Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina, as well as some interesting national polls. But the race basically remains as it has for weeks since the conventions: Obama is winning.

NATIONAL POLLS
Washington Post-ABC News: Obama 49, Romney 47

But across the swing states, Obama leads among likely voters by a much larger margin, 52% to 41%, paralleling Obama’s advantages in recent Washington Post polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Also interesting: Voters now think Obama will prevail on November 6 by a 32 point margin, 63% to 31%.

Politico/George Washington University: Obama 49, Romney 47
Rand: Obama 50, Romney 43

This poll is interesting. It uses an experimental polling method which uses the same single panel of voters over several months. And it too confirms what nearly every other traditional poll has found: President Obama and Mitt Romney were running neck and neck until the Democratic convention and ever since then, Obama has been rising and Romney falling in the poll.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Obama 50, Romney 44
Reuters/Ipsos Tracking Poll: Obama 47, Romney 42

STATE POLLS
ARIZONA–Highground: Romney 46, Obama 42—Slim Romney
IOWA–Des Moines Register: Obama 49, Romney 45—Slim Obama
OHIO–Columbus Dispatch: Obama 51, Romney 42
OHIO–Public Policy Polling: Obama 49, Romney 45

The average is Obama 50, Romney 43.5, so the state is Lean Obama

NORTH CAROLINA–Public Policy Polling: Obama 48, Romney 48—Tied

SENATE POLLS
MASSACHUSETTS–Boston Globe: Elizabeth Warren (D) 43, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 38.

Said pollster Andrew Smith: “It’s trending away from Brown. Brown right now is not doing well enough among Democrats to offset the advantage that ­Warren has. That’s just such a big obstacle to overcome for any Republican candidate in Massachusetts.”