A lot of polling firms went quiet in the middle of the week in order to go into the field fresh on Thursday to gauge the debate impact. Romney has definitely gotten a bump, but what is encouraging is that it is not at the expense of Obama. Obama’s numbers are holding, so Romney is just picking up undecideds. We should get a clearer picture of the battleground since Mitt Romney lied his way to a debate win last Wednesday.
Indeed, I have a question for Republicans and conservatives. If you have to lie about your policies, plans and ideologies in order to win, what does that tell you?
In some polls, notably the PPP poll out of Virginia last night, the Romney lies only served to make him more likable among Democrats and Independents, and they allowed Romney to win the debate. Interestingly though, while Virginia independents think Romney won the debate 71-17, it doesn’t mean they are voting for him. They are splitting their vote at 46% a piece. And while more Democrats may find Romney likeable now than before, they are not voting for him.
“Despite earlier predictions by the Romney campaign that they would be competitive in traditionally blue states like Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, they are putting no serious effort into any of them. Moreover, the Paul Ryan pick gave Romney only a short-lived bounce in Wisconsin. The latest polls in the Badger State show Obama with a healthy advantage in the state. This has left Romney has a very narrow path to 270, and no room for error. If Romney loses Ohio and Wisconsin, he would have no choice but to win almost every single other battleground state to win.”
So here is where we stand:
Please note, our dear conservative trolls, that we do not include the following biased pollsters from your side of the aisle: Rasmussen and We Ask America. If you want to live in your fantasy world where the electorate is all Republican and thus Romney is winning, please do so, but not here. We will stay with the credible pollsters as judged by Nate Silver.
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 44 (LV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47
COLORADO (Selzer): Obama 47, Romney 43
MONTANA (The Mellman Group for JET PAC [DGA]–D): Romney 48, Obama 44
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43
WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 47
SENATE POLLS
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 41
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 52, George Allen (R) 45
(MASSACHUSETTS (Western New England University): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45