Time to feel better polling junkies. The best week of Romney’s campaign is over and he did not take the lead in the major swing states. Yes, he is still too close for comfort, yes he got a debate bump in the swing states. But he did not take the lead. He did not hurt Obama’s numbers. Colorado returns to the good side, and we have new polls in Nevada, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Michigan.
Here is the map:
NATIONAL POLLS
Fox News: Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 44 (RV)
Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 45 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 45, Obama 44 (LV); Obama 44, Romney 41 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47
YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 48, Romney 47–Slim Obama
FLORIDA (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 46
FLORIDA (Univ. of North Florida): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (Adults)
The average of the three findings is Obama 49, Romney 44, or Lean Obama.
MAINE (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Obama 51, Romney 37, Others 1–Strong Obama
MONTANA (Montana State University-Billings): Romney 49, Obama 35, Others 3
MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 41
The average is 50.5 for Romney and 38 for Obama, so Montana is Strong Romney.
NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47–Slim Obama
RHODE ISLAND (Brown University): Obama 58, Romney 32–Strong Obama
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Obama 49, Romney 42–Lean Obama
NEW JERSEY (Global Strategy Group): Obama 51, Romney 40–Strong Obama
OHIO (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45–Lean Obama
VIRGINIA (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Romney 48, Obama 47
VIRGINIA (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 51%, Romney 46%
The average is Obama 49, Romney 47, so Slim Obama
WISCONSIN (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 47–Slim Obama
SENATE POLLS
AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43–Slim Dem
AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43
This is hilarious, dueling internal campaign polls. The average is Flake 46, Carmona 45, or Slim GOP.
ME-SEN (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 24, Cynthia Dill (D) 12–Strong Dem
MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8–Slim Dem
NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 44, David Venderbeek (IAP) 4–Slim GOP
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45–Slim GOP
RI-SEN (Brown University): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 59, Barry Hinckley (R) 30–Strong Dem