The Polling Report [10.12.12]

Florida and Colorado move to the red column today, and it takes the President’s electoral college vote number down to the lowest point since before the summer. But no worries, since the statewide polling has now caught up to the Romney debate bounce reflected in the national polls earlier in the week. Now we get to see how Vice President Biden’s performance last night and how President Obama’s second debate affect the race. Here is the map:

NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 46
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 47, Obama 44 (LV); Obama 44, Romney 43 (RV)
Monmouth University: Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 43 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 47
UPI/CVoter: Romney 49, Obama 46

STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA (Pepperdine School of Public Policy): Obama 54, Romney 33—Strong Obama
CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama 53, Romney 39, Others 4—Strong Obama
COLORADO (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Romney 48, Obama 47—Slim Romney

I am posting this poll again because I got it wrong yesterday. I thought it was Obama 48, Romney 47, but instead it is the opposite.

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 44—Lean Romney
ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/WGN): Obama 55, Romney 36—Strong Obama
MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 41—Strong Obama
NEVADA (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 45—Slim Obama
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 48

I am posting this to prove that the only polling recently of NC has been by Rasmussen. But we do not count Rasmussen in our map. Hopefully a credible pollster will get in there soon, and when they do I suspect they will find it to be a close race as it was in 2008. I mean, Rasmussen with all their polling sample bias is finding it to be only a 3 point race. So to all those who think NC is gone, think again.

PENNSYLVANIA (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 50, Romney 42—Lean Obama

SENATE POLLS
CA-SEN (Pepperdine School of Public Policy): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 48, Elizabeth Emken (R) 31
CA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 54, Elizabeth Emken (R) 35
FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 39 (LV); Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 36 (RV)
MA-SEN (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47
MI-SEN (Glengariff Group for the Detroit News): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38
MT-SEN (Montana State University-Billings): Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 40, Dan Cox (L) 6
NV-SEN (Suffolk): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 40, Shelley Berkley (D) 37, David VanderBeek (IAP) 7
NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 39, Others 8
NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39
OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (RV)
PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 45
VA-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44
VA-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 46 (LV); Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 45 (RV)
VA-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Allen campaign): George Allen (R) 47, Tim Kaine (D) 44
WI-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46