How important is the top of the ticket? Very important.

A contact with access to a lot of polling data on statewide races reported that Obama’s performance was so bad at the first debate that he dinged all the statewide dems to the tune of two to three percentage points.

In Delaware we are lucky. That 2 to 3 percent will not amount to much for the lackluster Republicans who got hoodwinked into running this year. But a 2 to 3 percent swing would mean everything to the candidates currently trying to hang on to a Democratic Senate?

Indiana: Donnelley D -1.4%
Montana: Tester D TIED
North Dakota: Hietkamp D +1.3%
Virginia: Kaine D +2.5 percentage
Connecticut: Murphy +2.6%
Ohio: Brown D +3.5%

If these 6 Democrats lose, then we lose the Senate.