The Polling Report [10.16.12]

Holy mother of God do we have a lot of polls today. We have so much polls that I have divided this Polling Report up into two sections. The first section deals with the Presidential race, and the second section, which will be posted later this afternoon, deals with the down ballot races for Senate and Governor, in which we will have a Senate Forecast update.

So here is our new Electoral College map as it stands here today. Remember, my methodology is as follows: 1) the map is based exclusively on the polls below and on the most recent credible poll from that state if there is no poll from the state below; 2) we do not base our projections in the map upon any Rasmussen or Republican polling outfit, 3) if we have two or more polls on a single day from the same state, we average the results together, and 4) the map legend reveals why each state is colored the way they are colored.

NATIONAL POLLS
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Romney 50, Obama 46
American Research Group: Romney 48, Obama 47
Battleground Poll for GWU/Politico: Obama 49, Romney 48
Gallup Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48

STATE POLLS

ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43–LEAN ROMNEY

CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 39–STRONG OBAMA

COLORADO (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 45–SLIM OBAMA

CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39–STRONG OBAMA

FLORIDA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA

GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44–LEAN ROMNEY

GEORGIA (ABT/SRBI for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution): Romney 51, Obama 43–LEAN ROMNEY

IDAHO (Mason Dixon): Romney 63, Obama 27–STRONG ROMNEY

ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 38–STRONG OBAMA

INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 41–STRONG ROMNEY

IOWA (American Research Group): Obama 48, Romney 48
IOWA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

The average of the two Iowa polls is Obama 49, Romney 47, or SLIM OBAMA.

MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 37–STRONG OBAMA

MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36–STRONG OBAMA

MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 42–STRONG OBAMA

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44–LEAN OBAMA

MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 42—STRONG ROMNEY

NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 45–LEAN OBAMA

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 47–TIE

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 43
NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 41

The average of the two NJ polls is Obama 52.5 to Romney 42, or STRONG OBAMA

NEW MEXICO (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Obama 49, Romney 39, Johnson 6–STRONG OBAMA

NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 35–STRONG OBAMA

NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 48–SLIM ROMNEY

OHIO (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 46
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama 49, Romney 45
PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 44
PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

The average of these four PA polls is Obama 50.25 to Romney 44.75, or LEAN OBAMA. I hope these polls are close enough to goad Romney into wasting money in this blue state yet again. Pennsylvania is fools gold for Republicans, every year.

TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43–LEAN ROMNEY

TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 55, Obama 41–STRONG ROMNEY

VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 46, Romney 45
VIRGINIA (American Research Group): Romney 48, Obama 47

The average of these 2 Virginia polls is an exact tie, 46.5 to 46.5.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40–STRONG OBAMA

WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36–STRONG OBAMA

WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 47–LEAN OBAMA