Another Epic Polling Report [10.19.12]
Some good polls out of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida and Michigan, producing the map below. And we also have Nate Silver offering some comments and thoughts about Gallup’s history of being very wrong when it is the outlier poll.
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Romney 52, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
Nate Silver has some insights into why the poll above is so different from the polls below, results that “are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.”
“In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large. Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.”
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 46
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 39 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA
CONNECTICUT (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Obama 53, Romney 44
CONNECTICUT (Univ. of Connecticut): Obama 51, Romney 37
The average is Obama 52, Romney 40.5, or STRONG OBAMA.
IOWA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)–LEAN OBAMA
MICHIGAN (Denno Research): Obama 44, Romney 41
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 52, Romney 46
The average is Obama 48, Romney 43.5, or LEAN OBAMA.
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 40–STRONG OBAMA
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 48–SLIM OBAMA
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Obama 52, Romney 41–STRONG OBAMA
WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)–LEAN OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
CONNECTICUT (PPP): Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 44
(Univ. of Connecticut): Chris Murphy (D) 44, Linda McMahon (R) 38
The average of this race is Murphy 46, McMahon, 41, or a LEAN DEM lead.
NEBRASKA (Hickman Analytics): Deb Fischer (R) 50, Bob Kerrey (D) 45–LEAN GOP
NEVADA (Mellman Group): Shelley Berkley (D) 41, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 38, Others 5
(SurveyUSA): Heller 46, Berkley 40, Others 8
The average is Heller 42, Berkley 40.5, or a SLIM GOP lead.
VIRGINIA (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 45–LEAN DEM
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 58, Michael Baumgartner (R) 35–STRONG DEM
WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 45–SLIM DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 45
Gallup’s rubric for “likely voters” could be fundamentally flawed. First, if they rely on “past voting behavior” they eliminate the responses from everyone 18-22 as they have never voted in a presidential election. If you expand that to 2 presidential elections and include primaries, most people under 28 would be pegged as “unlikely”. I know “my generation” is sad Obama didnt buy us a car, or whatever the “company line” is, but Gallup, i hope with every fiber in my being, is really mistaken here.
Was with a group of friends last week and the one thing we absolutely had in common… We hadn’t participated in polls recently. The agreement among the group was that their were too many polling phone calls so we had stopped answering our phone or hung up when we realized it was another poll.
We have poll fatigue. And we don’t even live in a swing state. I can’t imagine what those poor people are going through.
possibly….. maybe R’s are very excited to say “NOBAMA!” while sane people just want it to be november 7th.
They have a different map than the one you show. These guys have been right on, they called it in 08 correct. Show statistics back to 2000, they show 130 undecided, 201 Obama – 206 Romney
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Real Clear Politics includes Rasmussen, an non-credible partisan biased polling firm.
Delaware dem claiming rassmussen is biased, if thats not the pot calling the kettle black, i dont know what is.
Let’s take a trip down the Rustydils comment lane.
Good times.
Was it Rusty that also said California was going to won by Romney in a landslide? LOL.
Hey Rusty, I am biased, but I am not a polling organization, last I checked.
@jaym “They have a different map than the one you show. These guys have been right on, they called it in 08 correct.”
Yea.. And they have Obama winning. Click on the “no tossups” and see.
And this collective polling method is even more reliable.
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
They have Obama winning by the nearly the same margins (only NH different).
And then there’s this guy with an excellent track record (better than RCP’s)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
He has Obama at better than 2:1 odds.
Delaware Dem, if you admit your a biased, and hence by inference, your map is biased,(and hence, not accurate) what is the point of putting it out in the first place, what are you trying to accomplish for your readers?
Rusty–
1)
“Your” is a possessive pronoun.
“You’re” is a contraction of the words “you” and “are”.
2)
The fact that DE Dem admits a bias does not change the FACTS that he has posted. Please take a reading comprehension class.
Roland, because del dsm is biased, he is ignoring dozens of of polls from numerous souces around the country. Which changes his electoral map from factual to fantasy. As far as using you’ re vs your, I know the differnce. Unfortunately the people who make my smart phone make it inconvient for me to qickly use an apostrophy, so consider this my own unique text language
How is florida in obamas column factual, the last 6 poles out of florida all favor romney, average romney lead in florida for the last six polls is 3.4 ponits. Explain how del dem putting florida in obamas column is factual
The last 6 Poles out of Florida were my great uncle and aunt and four elderly cousins. In fact, they all prefer Obama. And they shared 20 ponits* for breakfast — averaging 3.4 of a ponit for the last six Poles.
*A kind of a blintz. At the Ponit Factory, they come 10 to a family ponit pack.
Actually, I looked up ponit to see if it really does mean anything. I think the Urban Dictionary definition is apt for this spate of comments.
6 of the last 7 polls out of virginia favor Romney, Romney’ s average lead in Virginia is 3.6 points. But Del Dem’ S fantasy wishful thinking pretend map still shows Virginia for Obama. How is that factual.
I don’t know where you get your information but in almost all polling I’ve seen Romney holds a slim lead 3 points at most. Virginia is like Delaware, Democratic in the populous north Republican in the rural south. Romney has the edge now but it’s too close to call. The state has been trending blue and continues to move that way.
Intrade currently has Florida and Virginia going for Romney, so:
ROMNEY 257
OBAMA 281 ✓
too bloody close. look at how close wisconsin is… they have already stolen an election there by “finding” more votes in a car….. ugh. I need tums.
Take it easy SB. Here is nate silver:
Still, if the national polls tell a more equivocal tale than the Gallup poll alone would imply, it’s really in the state polls where Mr. Obama’s strength lies — as has largely been the case all year.
Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College improved to 70.4 percent on Thursday from 65.7 percent on Wednesday, according to the forecast.