Some good polls out of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida and Michigan, producing the map below. And we also have Nate Silver offering some comments and thoughts about Gallup’s history of being very wrong when it is the outlier poll.
NATIONAL POLLS
Gallup Tracking: Romney 52, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
Nate Silver has some insights into why the poll above is so different from the polls below, results that “are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.”
“In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large. Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.”
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 46
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 39 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 47–SLIM OBAMA
CONNECTICUT (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Obama 53, Romney 44
CONNECTICUT (Univ. of Connecticut): Obama 51, Romney 37
The average is Obama 52, Romney 40.5, or STRONG OBAMA.
IOWA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)–LEAN OBAMA
MICHIGAN (Denno Research): Obama 44, Romney 41
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama 52, Romney 46
The average is Obama 48, Romney 43.5, or LEAN OBAMA.
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 40–STRONG OBAMA
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 48–SLIM OBAMA
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Obama 52, Romney 41–STRONG OBAMA
WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)–LEAN OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
CONNECTICUT (PPP): Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 44
(Univ. of Connecticut): Chris Murphy (D) 44, Linda McMahon (R) 38
The average of this race is Murphy 46, McMahon, 41, or a LEAN DEM lead.
NEBRASKA (Hickman Analytics): Deb Fischer (R) 50, Bob Kerrey (D) 45–LEAN GOP
NEVADA (Mellman Group): Shelley Berkley (D) 41, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 38, Others 5
(SurveyUSA): Heller 46, Berkley 40, Others 8
The average is Heller 42, Berkley 40.5, or a SLIM GOP lead.
VIRGINIA (PPP): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 45–LEAN DEM
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 58, Michael Baumgartner (R) 35–STRONG DEM
WISCONSIN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 45–SLIM DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
WASHINGTON (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 45