A Sunday Polling Report? Yes, A Sunday Polling Report [10.21.12]
And the star of today’s special Sunday edition of the Polling Report is the state of Florida, where there are 5 new polls out this weekend. We have other polling out of Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. Now, let me ask you something. If President Obama wins Florida, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina, then it stands to reason he will also be winning Iowa and New Hampshire, right? Well, not according to this weekend’s polls.
NATIONAL POLLS
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 47
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 48
Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
Univ. of Connecticut: Obama 48, Romney 45
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Obama 53, Romney 38–STRONG OBAMA
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (PPP for Washington City Paper): Obama 88, Romney 8–UNOBTAINIUM OBAMA
Yes, for some reason, someone wasted money polling DC, and the poll is so outrageous (80 pt lead) that I had to create a new classification.
FLORIDA (CNN/ORC): Romney 49, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)
FLORIDA (Fox News): Romney 48, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 47, Obama 45 (RV)
FLORIDA (PPP): Romney 48, Obama 47
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 46
FLORIDA (Grove Insight): Obama 48, Romney 45
Five polls out of Florida this weekend, and with two of those polls having results for both LV and RV voting screens, it is like we have 7 polls! Nearly each poll as it as close as it can be, although there is an interesting discrepancy between the LV and RV numbers in the CNN poll. I would love to see the likely voter screen that produces it. The average of all the polls is Obama 47.14 and Romney 46.57, or the Slimmest of OBAMA leads.
IOWA (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48–SLIM ROMNEY
NEVADA (Mellman Group): Obama 51, Romney 43–LEAN OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48–SLIM ROMNEY
NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight): Obama 47, Romney 44–SLIM OBAMA
OHIO (Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)
OHIO (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 48
The average of the three polls is Obama 47, Romney 44, or SLIM OBAMA.
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 42–LEAN OBAMA
UTAH (Utah State Univ.): Romney 74, Obama 21–UNOBTAINIUM ROMNEY
Our second pointless poll. If a Democrat ever wins Utah, and a Republican ever wins DC, then truly the Rapture is imminent.
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 47
SENATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 60, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34–STRONG DEM
HAWAII (Benenson Strategy Group): Mazie Hirono (D) 56, Linda Lingle (R) 38–STRONG DEM
MISSOURI (Harstad Research): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 35, Jonathan Dine (L) 8–STRONG DEM
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 51, Todd Akin (R) 43–LEAN DEM
OHIO (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44–LEAN DEM
PENNSYLVANIA (Garin-Hart-Yang): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 39–STRONG DEM
UTAH (Utah State Univ.): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 67, Scott Howell (D) 24–STRONG GOP
GOVERNOR POLLS
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43
UTAH (Utah State Univ.): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 76, Peter Cooke (D) 17
I know at the late date this might be a stupid question, but why is LEAN Obama (or Romney) better than SLIM (Obama or Romney) for the candidate?
I would think that a .5-4.9% advantage would be LEAN and the next category SLIM, with the final category (before UNOBTAINIUM) being STRONG.
“LEAN” to me implies you haven’t really gotten your margin out of the polling margin for error.
I know you’re not going to change it now, but I’m curious as to whether that’s general polling lingo, or if you decided to do it that way–and if so why?
If it is lean, it should be out of the margin of error. Now, I am intrigued with how you have FL which every poll shows for Romney so much that some polling companies are starting to say it doesn’t need to be polled or NC which is by most polls a 7 point state or more for Romney are in the Obama camp on your map. In reality, the race is way too close to call. Real Clear Politics gives the edge to Romney in the E.C.
Good point. When I first started this, in my mind, Lean was better than Slim. I don’t know why. SAFE and STRONG are categories generally given to leads above 10 points. And then Likely or Lean were given to leads between 5-10. And then leads under 5 points were placed in this TOSSUP category which I hated. I wanted to create a designation that avoided the TOSSUP designation, and the word that came to mind was “Slim” leads. So that is why I did it. But you are right, you could very well reverse it.
@RD “Real Clear Politics gives the edge to Romney in the E.C.”
No it doesn’t. It has Obama up by 16.
I am shocked that a Republican would misrepresent something. Shocked I say.