Here’s some more on the Gallup Outlier Situation.
Ryan Lizza: “In recent years, as the electorate has become more polarized, campaign tacticians have become more focussed on getting their own voters to the polls than on persuading others to change their allegiance. This year, the Obama campaign has a two-part strategy. First, they made what the campaign manager Jim Messina calls a ‘grand bet,’ spending heavily on a summer airwave blitz, with ads designed to soften up Mitt Romney in the eyes of voters; second, they have created a volunteer army on the ground to carry victory home.”
The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board:
On economic issues, the race between Obama and Romney presents a stark choice. Romney wants to cut taxes, spending and regulations in the hope that the mix of stimulus and austerity will spark growth and reduce the federal deficit. Obama wants to trim spending but raise taxes on high-income Americans, shrinking the deficit without sacrificing investments in the country’s productive capacity or curtailing Washington’s role in protecting the vulnerable. […]
Voters face a momentous choice in November between two candidates offering sharply different prescriptions for what ails the country. Obama’s recalls the successful formula of the 1990s, when the government raised taxes and slowed spending to close the deficit. The alternative offered by Romney would neglect the country’s infrastructure and human resources for the sake of yet another tax cut and a larger defense budget than even the Pentagon is seeking. The Times urges voters to reelect Obama.
I’m not a Democrat. I’m, like Norman Lear, a compassionate conservative. And the only compassionate conservative running is Obama. — Richard Dreyfuss (@RichardDreyfuss) October 20, 2012
Finally, as we now two weeks out from the election, although I do loving polling, they become less important than the ground game. And that is why the Obama campaign’s early voting and registration efforts are so important. Booman looks at Nevada’s numbers:
– Statewide, Nevada Democrats now have a 90,187 raw vote advantage. And yes, that makes for a 7.17% advantage. Back in March, Democrats only had about a 4% statewide edge. And it was even smaller earlier this year.
– In Washoe County, Republicans’ voter registration edge has narrowed even further. It’s now a mere 1,169 raw votes, or 0.005%. In March, Republicans had a 1.76% edge.
– In Clark County, Democrats are closing with a 127,471 raw vote lead, or a 14.96% advantage. In March, Democrats had an 11.68% advantage countywide.
– In NV-03, Democrats are closing with a 7,066 raw vote lead, or a 2.11% edge. In March, Republicans actually had a tiny 0.01% edge.
– In NV-04, Democrats are closing with a 41,094 raw vote lead, or a 13.27% advantage. In March, Democrats had a 9.91% advantage.
In North Carolina, where polls show it to be a close race that probably favors Romney in the end, we get some great news from their registration and early voting numbers. Indeed, antedoctal reports from North Carolina Democrats have always been pretty great, in contrast to polling.
North Carolina began in-person early voting on Thursday, and oh what a difference a day makes. In one day, over 150,872 people voted in-person, which is the Democrats preferred method of early voting in North Carolina. The party registration numbers were upended. As of Wednesday, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats 52 percent to 27 percent and as of Thursday, Democrats outnumber Republicans 47 percent to 35 percent. But before we call North Carolina for Obama, registered Democrats had healthy early vote leads in 2008 and 2004.
North Carolina has an innovation unavailable elsewhere. In-person early voting is called “one stop” voting in the state because a person can register and vote all in one stop at an early voting polling location. Over 100,000 people took advantage of this in 2008. Unregistered voters don’t even make registered voter poll screens, much less likely voter screens. It will be worthwhile to watch if one stop voting moves the North Carolina polling as early voting progresses.