The Polling Report [10.23.12]
I am separating the Polling Reports again today just because we have a large number of downballot polls for the Senate and Governor’s races, coupled with our standard load of National, National Tracking and State polls. The national polls are multiplying like rabbits, and today, that have the race ranging from Obama +4, to Obama +3, to Obama +2 to Obama +1 to Tied to Romney +1, Romney +2, Romney +3, and Romney +6. Something for everyone’s reality.
But here is today’s map:
NATIONAL POLLS
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 43
Zogby for the Washington Times: Obama 50, Romney 47
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps: Obama 49, Romney 46
CBS News: Obama 48, Romney 46
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 48
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 42 (RV)
NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Obama 47, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48
UPI/CVoter: Romney 48, Obama 47
American Research Group: Romney 49, Obama 47
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
Monmouth University: Romney 48, Obama 45
Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
STATE POLLS
FLORIDA (Angus Reid): Romney 51, Obama 46–LEAN ROMNEY
IOWA (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 48–SLIM OBAMA
MARYLAND (Washington Post): Obama 60, Romney 36 (LV); Obama 60, Romney 35 (RV)–STRONG OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting): Obama 55, Romney 39–STRONG OBAMA
MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 46–LEAN ROMNEY
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 51, Romney 42–LEAN OBAMA
NEW JERSEY (Stockton Polling Institute): Obama 53, Romney 38
NEW JERSEY (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40
The average is Obama 53.5, Romney 39, or STRONG OBAMA
PENNSYLVANIA (Angus Reid): Obama 52, Romney 42–STRONG OBAMA
VIRGINIA (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 47, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
WASHINGTON (Strategies 360): Obama 52, Romney 39–STRONG OBAMA
WISCONSIN (Angus Reid): Obama 51, Romney 46
WISCONSIN (Grove Insight): Obama 47, Romney 44
WISCONSIN (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 47
The average is Obama 49.33, Romney 45.67, or SLIM OBAMA
Although I like these results better, Real Clear Politics has Romney up .6. What’s the difference in how you come up with averages?
Did you account for the voting machines Tagg Romney owns in Ohio?
I explain this over and over again and no one ever seems to listen. So I am going to post the methodology once again and for the last time, and then just link back here.
My methodology is different from other poll composite sites, like Real Clear Politics or Talking Points Memo or the Huffington Post in three main ways.
First, all of the three keep running averages of all of the polls taken in a given state. I don’t do running averages. Every day that a new credible poll of a state comes out, I post it in this report and change the color of the state on the map if need be according to the results of the particular poll. For example, over the weekend there was a poll in New Hampshire that had Ronmney up by 1 point, 49-48. Today, we have a new poll showing Obama up by 9 points, 51-42. If I was doing a running polling average like RCP or TPM, I would average those two polls together with the other polls taken in the state. But I don’t do that. So on Sunday, NH was colored pink, representing a SLIM ROMNEY lead in the state. Today, it is colored blue, representing a LEAN OBAMA lead in the state. Tomorrow if another poll shows a different result, the color on the map might be different too.
The only time I average poll results together is when two or more credible polls are released on the same day. Sometimes it is not an issue, as each of the same day polls might show the same result. But when I was confronted with the instance where two or more polls showed different results (i.e. one poll showed a STRONG OBAMA lead and the other a SLIM OBAMA lead), the only fair way to do it was to average the two polls together and get a single result.
The reason I do not do running averages is that I want to keep an up to date read on the states as possible. Running polling averages tend to be slow to pick up on movement.
The second way my polling map is different is that I don’t have a Toss Up or Too Close to Call category. Composite sites, with varying definitions, label states as toss ups or too close to call if a candidate’s lead is either under 5 points or within the margin of error of a particular poll. I don’t do that. In my map, a lead is a lead. You can clearly see my legend. TIED (Yellow for exactly tied races), SLIM (Pink or Light Blue for leads of 0.01 to 4.9 points), LEAN (Blue or Red for leads of 5 to 9.9 points) and STRONG (Dark Blue or Maroon for leads over 10 points). That is why my map tends to be more blue than the others. The other sites list most of the swing states as toss up states. I list them based on whatever recent poll result is out. And Obama tends to be leading all the swing states, albeit by small margins under 5 points and within the margin of error.
Finally, I do not include results from Rasmussen. The others do. That automatically makes the map a little bluer.
the result being one of the “bluer” maps offered. You cant DO that to scardy-pants anxious liberals who dont want a cavalry fought trade-war with China day one, man. 😉
Maybe we are all having the same reaction…. The dems MUST be losing because it’s what they do…. if it is THIS close, the Rs will be able to rig another election without much protest, STOP GIVING US FALSE HOPE GGAAAHHHHHHHHHHH *lights hair on fire*
If Obama is re elected, I’ll be the first to with I had found comfort in your maps. I’m just intentionally keepimg myself overly-skeptical because, well, im a typical liberal.
Things are pretty firmed up, (that’s what she said!) So, I’m going to make my prediction:
ROMNEY 248
OBAMA 290 ✓
That’s Obama taking Colorado but not Virginia.
I really cannot stand the whiny weak self defeatist hair on fire scared fearful depressed nature of liberals and Democrats. Grow a fucking spine, like you always implored Democrats in office to do.
goodness.
So, You are taking the “over” then?
That wasn’t directed at you, Ben, just the Dems you referred to. 🙂
Jason, if I am making a prediction today, I think Obama wins Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada, but loses North Carolina and Florida. That will give us a 303 to 235 Obama EC lead.
But I am still bullish on NC and FL due to our ground game and early voting in both states. I would not be surprised if we win both in the end, and if we do, Obama’s EC total skyrockets to 347.
Rational Ben thinks Obama will win in a squeaker… but nervous Ben who’s first real election he paid attention to (couldnt vote yet) and got all invested in was 2000…. when a guy who lost the popular vote got to be president because a state where his brother was the damn governor had some “ballot issues” which resulted 8 of the worst years in recent American history.
Good point. It isn’t as if the queasy sense that Republicans will cheat isn’t grounded in bitter experience.
Can anyone explain the 10% drop in Obama’s Intrade value in the last 24 hours or so?
There have been no bad polls for Obama today except an anemic NH poll.
Romney took a real beating last night, looked rather weak and confused, and comes out ahead??
Because Obama didn’t really do anything to interrupt Romney’s momentum.
What momentum??
Ever since Oct 12, the momentum has been all Obama.
Look at the charts here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
The momentum that had us chortling over maybe 350 Obama EVs a few weeks ago but now has us white-knuckling out any Obama victory at all. That momentum has to stop now.
I agree with jason . . . the 47% are acting up . . . so they are circling the wagons to keep us in check . . . they will do whatever it takes to win . . . cheating comes to mind real quick!!!!!
Chait has a story about Romney trying to fake a bunch of momentum. (It worked for Rove down the stretch.) Maybe Romney is using his billions to bid down Obama shares?
Obama is at 57% at intrade with Romney at 42%. Since the first debate Obama’s been around 62%. At most it is a -5% move.
The Donald Trump reveal? LOL.
People, get a grip.
Does anyone ever look at the Princeton Election Consortium? I’m fascinated by this, if anything because Sam Wang talks in detail about what he is doing. And because he reminds us of stuff like this:
And Ezra Klein’s place takes a hard look at the Intrade swing today:
It figures that some rich wingnut tried to move the intrade market. It was probably coordinated with the bullshit “momentum” meme Romney is trying to push.
Probably…
Note that there was no such corresponding moves on the state-by-state races at Intrade, and that still has Obama winning by 24 and with overall winning odds close to 80% assuming uncorrelated state races (bad assumption, but best I can do in one minute). Correlating them probably reduces Obama’s chances to about 65-70%, in line with Nate Silver’s assessment. Strong correlation (i.e. all states shift together one way or the other by 1-3 points) gives Obama about a 55% chance to win.
Strong correlation could be seen if there was a singular national event like a terrorist attack, or the leaking of Romney’s tax returns, or a major gaff, or an assassination attempt… Weak correlation comes from local issues and local events.
@c “Does anyone ever look at the Princeton Election Consortium? I’m fascinated by this”
There’s also a good discussion of the fake momentum there.