Current Betting Lines – Legislative Races
Bring your $2.00 up to the window. The introductions have been made and the horses are approaching the gates.
Senate 4thGreenville-Brandywine Hundred-Pike Creek Valley
-> Mike Katz Democrat 51%
Greg Lavelle – Republican
Senate 12th New Castle-Delaware City-below the canal
Dori Connor Republican
->Nicole Poore – Democrat 54%
(Dori, when I see your William Penn looking signs down in Cav’s Country, I think about how upside down the world must seem to you right now.)
Senate 6th Lewes-Rehoboth-Dewey-Milton
Ernie Lopez – Republican
->Andy Staton – Democrat 51%
(Celia says that Lopez is getting a lot of help from Democrats. Has anyone looked up Tom Carper’s donations?)
Senate 19thBridgeville-Georgetown-Long Neck
Jane Hovington – Democrat
->Brian Pettyjohn – Republican Pinch Hitter 51%
(Oh lordy! El Som covered the BS that the GOP is trying to pull. Note to GOP, In the future don’t nominate religious wingnuts and spare yourself this turmoil.)
House 10th Brandywine Hundred
-> Dennis Williams– Democrat 55%
Bob Rhodunda – Republican
(One of the candidates will certainly win this one.)
House 23rd Newark
-> Paul Baumbach – Democrat 54%
Mark Doughty – Republican
(Baumbach has proven to be a tough campaigner. Take it home Paul.)
House 11th Southern New Castle/County-northern Kent County
Lynne Newlin – Democrat
-> Jeffrey Spiegelman – Republican 52%
(If the top of the ticket is wicked strong, Newlin has a fair chance.)
House 29th Cheswold/Dover/Camden
-> Lincoln Willis– Republican 50%
Trey Paradee – Democrat
(I’m loving some Trey Paradee. He has taken it to Willis in all the right ways. If voters in the 29th are paying attention I like Paradee by 5%)
House 32nd Dover
-> Andria Bennett – Democrat 54%
Ellis Parrott – Republican
(The 32nd has some of the sleep walkingest voters I’ve seen anywhere in Delaware.)
House 20thLewes-Milton
Marie Mayor- Democrat
-> Steve Smyk – Republican 52%
(One of the candidates is going to get more votes than the other.)
House 37th Georgetown-Long Neck
-> Ruth Briggs King– Republican 50%
Beth McGinn – Democrat
(I like the name “Beth McGinn” for an office seeker. It is a solid name. That’s all I know about this race.)
House 38th Ocean View/Fenwick Island/Selbyville
-> Ron Gray – Republican 51%
Shirley Price – Democrat
(Price has been down this road before. Registration favors the R.)
House 40th Laurel/Delmar
-> Tim Dukes – Republican 51%
Ben Lowe – Democrat
(When I see “Laurel/Delmar” I think of backward ass dumbfucks. ’nuff said)
With respect to Senate 4th: Four weeks ago I would have said Lavelle by 2% but Mike Katz has run the better campaign. Just got letters from my neighbors asking me to support him, and Mike has been to our door twice. We got one visit from a Lavelle surrogate.
Even so, especially after the re-districting, this is a tough district for a Democrat. But I think running in a presidential election year will get him just by.
I’m gonna say Katz by less than 300 votes although I don’t know what percentage that would be.
What about the 5th?
I think I’d make some money off these lines. Pretty sure I’d lay some $$’s on Ernesto Lopez, for example.
Frankenstorm permitting, ‘El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You’ should be up by midweek.
A lot of interesting races not on the line.
I’d take those Marie Mayor odds.
Would love to see McGinn make a close one of the election, but I think in the end, the Manufactured Housing community has “something come up last minute” and mumbles an excuse for why they didn’t turn out to vote.
Both of those are interesting races.
I’m liking Mayor more and more. McGinn’s got a shot. Not sure she got started in time, but she’s the real deal. Maybe this time, more likely next time. And I hope there IS a next time.
Living in both the 6th SD and 20th RD, Lopez is a Republican I can live with, Smyk not so much. I know you can only extrapolate so far from counting yard signs, but on the basis of that observation it doesn’t look good for Mayor. Smyk signs litter the landscape in and around Milton, and I was disappointed to see very few Mayor signs in Lewes, where she has to be strong to counteract what will likely be strong Smyk support in Milton.
Still, a friend of mine who talks to different people than I do tells me he thinks that Mayor has an “organization” working behind the scenes for her. He tells me that she is getting help by the same network that helped elect Roni Posner to the Cape Henlopen school board and Joan Deaver to county council. We’ll see.
WWB: The key is whether the lawn signs are on lawns or on right-of-way. If ROW signs meant anything, Alex Pires would be Delaware’s next US Senator.
I saw the Celia line too and was hoping for some insight on the DEM help going to Ernie Lopez.
Maybe there is backlash from Andy Staton’s close relationship to GOP insiders. One of Celia’s stories covered the flap over former long-time Republican State Party Chairman, Terry Strine’s would be fundraiser for Staton.
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/9-12leadershipdel.asp
I don’t like Andy Staton because of information brought to light in a letter published June 4th this year in the DE State News by Bob Burton, a Rehoboth Beach realtor.
There was too much damning information there to ignore. Burton exhibited how Staton used his position as chair to force though policy changes that financially benefited his business partner and campaign staffer, Rick Allamong, one of the members of the commission who “voted to give themselves a 40 percent raise”.
“On May 10, the Delaware Real Estate Commission held a hearing on proposed changes to realtor’s continuing education requirements. This meeting was for public comment. The first half of the public comment were mostly members of the Education Committee that formulated the new changes speaking in favor of raising the required classes from 15 – 21 credit hours, a 40 percent increase.
Each committee member stated that the proposed changes were not perfect and still needed much work…..Many people spoke in opposition…..and offered viable ways to fix the current system making it more accountable for both participants and the instructors.
Chairman Andy Staton then closed the public comment section and went ‘off the record’. The things that the commission discussed during this very long period of ‘off the record’ debate consisted of Vincent White, Rick Allamong and Mr. Staton defending the Education Committee’s proposed changes.
….Whenever another commission member questioned the proposed changes, they were quashed by Mr. White, Mr. Allamong or Mr. Staton
This was all done ‘off the record’ so none of it will appear on any minutes. Mr. While, Mr. Allamong and Mr. Staton were visibly upset when it was mentioned that many of those involved with forming these 40 percent increase in classes were instructors that would financially benefit from the increase. Mr. Allamong and Mr. While are instructors, so approving the proposed increase would benefit them financially.
Again, all of these conversations were off the record because Mr. Staton chose to do so. Mr. Staton went back on the record, the commission voted to approve the changes with Mr. Whitfield and Mr. Emory voting against the changes.
….Mr. Staton did not take into account any of the public comment and made up his mind prior to voting that he was standing by the Education Committee’s proposed changes. Mr. Allamong had the same position and stated nearly the same verbiage that Mr. Stanton did.”