The Polling Report [10.30.12]
Nate Silver notes the hurricane hitting the east coast means we’ll likely see “a reduction in the number of polls issued over the coming days… And certainly, any polls in the states that are most in harm’s way, including Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, will need to be interpreted with extreme caution.”
I still think we will see polls from Florida, Ohio and Colorado.
Here is the current map. There is a poll out of Colorado and Florida slowing very slim 1 point Romney leads, 1 poll out of North Carolina showing the race tied, and new polls out of Ohio and New Hampshire showing consistent 3-4 point Obama leads. We also have a Senate Forecast Update today, showing the Democrats picking up a net of 1 seat, with the possibility of picking up a net of 2, to increase their number of seats to 55.
NATIONAL POLLS
NPR: Romney 48, Obama 47
However, Obama leads by 4 percentage points, 50% to 46%, in 12 states battleground states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 49
American Research Group: Obama 48, Romney 48
Gallup Tracking: Romney 51, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 48 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 45, Romney 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 41 (RV)
Pew Research: Obama 47, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 45 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
UPI/CVoter: Obama 48, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–STRONG OBAMA
(USC/LA Times): Obama 54, Romney 40
COLORADO–SLIM ROMNEY
(American Research Group): Romney 48, Obama 47
FLORIDA–SLIM ROMNEY
(CNN/ORC): Romney 50, Obama 49 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 46 (RV)
INDIANA–STRONG ROMNEY
(Pharos Research Group): Romney 55, Obama 42
KANSAS–STRONG ROMNEY
(Jayhawk Poll): Romney 56, Obama 36
MARYLAND–STRONG OBAMA
(Baltimore Sun): Obama 55, Romney 36
MASSACHUSETTS–STRONG OBAMA
(Univ. of New Hampshire/Boston Globe): Obama 52, Romney 38
MINNESOTA–LEAN OBAMA
MINNESOTA (St. Cloud University): Obama 53, Romney 45
MISSOURI–STRONG ROMNEY
(Mason Dixon): Romney 54, Obama 41
MONTANA–LEAN ROMNEY
(Pharos Research): Romney 50, Obama 43
NEBRASKA–STRONG ROMNEY
(Pharos Research Group): Romney 58, Obama 39
NEBRASKA SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT–LEAN ROMNEY
(Omaha World-Herald): Romney 49, Obama 44
NEVADA–SLIM OBAMA
(CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 46 (RV)
NEW HAMPSHIRE–LEAN OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lake Research for USAction–D): Obama 47, Romney 42
NEW JERSEY–STRONG OBAMA
(Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 51, Romney 41
NEW MEXICO–LEAN OBAMA
(Albuquerque Journal): Obama 50, Romney 41, Johnson 5
NEW YORK–STRONG OBAMA
NEW YORK (SurveyUSA): Obama 62, Romney 33
NORTH CAROLINA–TIED
NORTH CAROLINA (Elon University): Obama 45, Romney 45
NORTH DAKOTA–STRONG ROMNEY
(Pharos Research): Romney 55, Obama 38
OHIO–The average is Obama 49, Romney 45, or SLIM OBAMA.
(Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 49, Romney 44
(Pharos Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 46
OREGON–LEAN OBAMA
(Hoffman Research–R): Obama 47, Romney 42
PENNSYLVANIA–LEAN OBAMA
(Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 49, Romney 43
TEXAS–STRONG ROMNEY
(Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Romney 55, Obama 39
VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 47, or SLIM OBAMA
(Garin-Hart-Yang for Priorities USA PAC): Obama 49, Romney 46
(Gravis Marketing–R): Obama 48, Romney 48
SENATE POLLING
FLORIDA–The average is Nelson 48.67, Mack 43.33, or LEAN DEM
(Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 44
(PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
(Voter Survey Service–R): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 44
HAWAII–STRONG DEM
(Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser): Mazie Hirono (D) 57, Linda Lingle (R) 35
INDIANA–SLIM DEM
(Pharos Research Group): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 46
MARYLAND–STRONG DEM
(Baltimore Sun): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Daniel Bongino (R) 24, Rob Sobhani (I) 14
MASSACHUSETTS–TIED
(Univ. of New Hampshire/Boston Globe): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47
MISSOURI–The average is McCaskill 49, Akin 41, or LEAN DEM
(Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 53, Todd Akin (R) 39
(Mason Dixon): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 43
MONTANA–SLIM DEM
(Pharos Research): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 47
NEBRASKA–The average is Fischer 49, Kerrey 46, or SLIM GOP
(Omaha World-Herald): Deb Fischer (R) 48, Bob Kerrey (D) 45
(Pharos Research Group): Deb Fischer (R) 50, Bob Kerrey (D) 47
NEW MEXICO–LEAN DEM
(Albuquerque Journal): Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 42, Jon Barrie (IAP) 3
NEW YORK–STRONG DEM
(SurveyUSA): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 64, Wendy Long (R) 22
NORTH DAKOTA–SLIM DEM
(Pharos Research Group): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 50, Rick Berg (R) 48
OHIO–The average is Brown 50.5, Mandel 44.75, or LEAN DEM
(Gravis–R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 47
(Pharos Research Group): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 43< (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 53, Josh Mandel (R) 42
(Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Newspaper Group): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 47
PENNSYLVANIA–LEAN DEM
(Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 42
TENNESSEE–STRONG GOP
(Middle Tennessee State Univ.): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 59, Mark Clayton (D) 21
TEXAS–STRONG GOP
(Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Ted Cruz (R) 54, Paul Sadler (D) 39, Others 5
VIRGINIA–The average is Kaine 48.5, Allen 46, or SLIM DEM
(Gravis Marketing–R): George Allen (R) 48, Tim Kaine (D) 46
(Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44
GOVERNOR POLLS
MISSOURI (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 55, Dave Spence (R) 33
MO-GOV (Mason Dixon): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 48, Dave Spence (R) 42
MONTANA (Pharos Research): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 44
NH-GOV (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44
NORTH CAROLINA (Elon University): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 38
NORTH DAKOTA (Pharos Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 63, Ryan Taylor (D) 34
I would have rated some Senate races differently.
MA is clearly strong favorite for Warren. There’s no way this is a tossup.
Move it over two columns to the left. That one is rated at 95% for Dems.
You need more than one bad poll to rate this. Poll today has Warren +7 points.
I’m not sure why IN is slim Dem. Seems like a tossup at best for the Dems.
Other polls suggest this will be very close.
ND and MT are both optimistic. We’ll see.
I’m predicting that the Dems lose a net of one (to 52).
On the presidential side, it’s now more clear that Romney must sweep CO, OH, VA, and FL to win.
That’s a tall order, since Obama is ahead in three of those races (according to NYTimes).
All Obama needs to do is to win any one of those four.
Poll today from Massachusetts.
Romney is down 32 points. That’s the most he has been down in any poll for a long time…
…and this is the state that knows him best!!
Another great polling day for Obama!
Frankly, I don’t see how Obama can lose unless something major happens to shake up the race, or unless the polling is severely skewed.
Treating the polling data, as is, and assuming no correlated changes between states (i.e. a skew or shift in one state is unrelated to the skew or shift in other states), then Obama wins 98% of the time.
This is like the Princeton model that has Obama winning big at 95%.
Even if ALL the key battleground state polls are off by 2 points in favor of Romney, then Obama still wins 71% of the time. This is more like the NYTimes model with correlated shifts that has Obama wining strongly at 77%
Even If they’re off by 3 points, then Obama still has better than even odds to win.
This is like the Real Clear Politics model that only considers selected polls, but still sees an Obama victory as most likely.
Note that the poll averaging between NYTimes and RCP seems to be 1.2 percentage points, with RCP favoring Romney. This is just taking published polls and weighted averaging them, so the differences are strikingly large!! This difference is probably politically motivated in nature, but I’m not sure who to accuse.
Anything more than 3 points,… not good.
This is like the Rasmussen model that predicts a squeaked out Romney victory.
Rasmussen polls are historically biased by 4 points, on average, and they are the least reliable (but FOX News just loves them!!).
All in all, despite the noise in the MSM, this election really isn’t all that close.
My biggest worry is that power may still be out in Philadelphia at election time, and that may significantly skew the PA vote…
Look at these early morning polls!
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Detroit News Obama 48, Romney 45 Obama +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Florida: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
This is an utter disaster for Romney. Obama is headed for 332
Oh jeeesus. The last time someone said that Obama tanked. I’m superstitious as a motherfucker when it comes to the willingness of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
LE, I will have a new polling report published this morning covering all of these polls. I am waiting on the 8:30 release of PPP’s numbers out of Iowa and Wisconsin.
Sorry to steal your thunder… It was just too good to sit on.
Im with ya jason…. I just assume the GOP will cheat to win Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Florida.