This Halloween Polling Report is scary for Republicans. Normally when a challenger defeats an incumbent, he is leading by wide margins right now. Remember 1992? Clinton was leading in all the polls, both national and state, by margins enough to ensure he would win 270. That is not the case for Mr. Romney right now. He is woefully behind the ball in the battleground states. In the end, he may win Florida and North Carolina, but the rest of the toss ups have Obama leading, as you see on our map.
Indeed, the point of our map, and why it is different from all other polling maps, is to show you who would win the election if the election where today. For that is all a poll can ask you. So that is all we are showing. And right now, we are showing an clear Obama victory. If Romney were to win, this map should be showing a clear Romney victory right now. It’s not.
So we have a lot of new polls out. The biggest surprise to me? Georgia is not lockdown safe for Romney. Georgia.
NATIONAL POLLS
(ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48
(CBS/New York Times): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 43 (RV)
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 41 (RV)
(PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 49, Romney 49
(Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–STRONG OBAMA—(Pepperdine Univ.): Obama 56, Romney 33
COLORADO–SLIM OBAMA—(Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 45
FLORIDA–The average is Obama 47.5, Romney 47, or SLIM OBAMA—(SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 47; CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac): Obama 48, Romney 47
GEORGIA–LEAN ROMNEY—(SurveyUSA): Romney 52, Obama 44
IOWA–LEAN OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 50, Romney 45
MASSACHUSETTS–STRONG OBAMA—(Suffolk University): Obama 63, Romney 31
NEVADA–LEAN OBAMA—(Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 49, Romney 43
NEW MEXICO–LEAN OBAMA—(Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Obama 47, Romney 42, Johnson 6
NORTH CAROLINA–LEAN ROMNEY—(SurveyUSA): Romney 50, Obama 45
NORTH DAKOTA–STRONG ROMNEY—(Mason Dixon): Romney 54, Obama 40
OHIO–The average is Obama 48.66, Romney 45, or SLIM OBAMA—(Grove Insight for Project New America and USAction): Obama 48, Romney 45; (SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 45; CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 45
OREGON–LEAN OBAMA—(Davis Hibbits Midghall): Obama 49, Romney 42
VIRGINIA–SLIM OBAMA—CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac): Obama 49, Romney 47
WISCONSIN–LEAN OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 51, Romney 46
We will have some downballot races later on this afternoon.