The Polling Report [11.1.12]
Nate Cohn: “Absent a possible but unlikely last-minute shift in the polls between now and Election Day, Romney’s chances will come down to the low but existent risk that the polls are and have been completely wrong. As Senators Harry Reid and Michael Bennet can attest, the polls have been wrong before and could be wrong again. But the Romney campaign’s revival of August’s welfare attack and their recent Jeep outsourcing antics suggest that Boston’s numbers don’t show something too different, while Chicago has unwaveringly maintained that they hold a modest and clear lead in Ohio. With Obama near 49 percent and just six days to go before the polls close, Romney’s window for a comeback is getting vanishingly narrow.”
Meanwhile, 78% rate the President’s response to Hurricane Sandy as excellent or good, while 8% view it negatively. It’s good press for the President, and in fact it is good governance, but I doubt it moves the polls that much. The polls were already moving in the President’s way before the Hurricane struck, both nationally and in the battleground states.
We once again have a lot of polls today. The only major change is moving North Carolina back to a Tied status, from LEAN ROMNEY.
Key finding: 78% rate Obama’s response to the hurricane positively (as excellent or good), while just 8% see it negatively.
NATIONAL POLLS
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 49
(Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 45 (RV)
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
(National Journal/United Technologies): Obama 50, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
(YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO–The average is Obama 47.5, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Romney 46, Obama 45; (We Ask America–R): Obama 50, Romney 47
FLORIDA–The average is Obama 48.33, Romney 48, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 47; (Mellman Group–D): Obama 49, Romney 47; (We Ask America–R): Romney 50, Obama 49; (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 47, Romney 47
ILLINOIS–STRONG OBAMA—(We Ask America–R): Obama 57, Romney 41
INDIANA–STRONG ROMNEY—(McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 57, Obama 39
IOWA–The average is Obama 47.67, Romney 45.33, or SLIM OBAMA—(Univ. of Iowa): Romney 45, Obama 44; (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 47; (NBC/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 44
MICHIGAN–The average is Obama 50.5, Romney 43.5, or LEAN OBAMA—(EPIC-MRA): Obama 48, Romney 42; (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45
MISSOURI–STRONG ROMNEY—(We Ask America–R): Romney 54, Obama 42
NORTH CAROLINA–TIED–(PPP): Obama 49, Romney 49
NEVADA–SLIM OBAMA—(SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 46
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SLIM OBAMA—(NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47
OHIO–The average is Obama 49, Romney 45, or SLIM OBAMA–(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 45; (PPP):/a> Obama 50, Romney 45; (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 50, Romney 44; (Univ. of Cincinnati): Obama 48, Romney 46
PENNSYLVANIA–SLIM OBAMA—(Franklin and Marshall): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 44 (RV)
VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 46, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 46; (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 46
WISCONSIN–The average is Obama 50.33, Romney 43.67, or LEAN OBAMA—(Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV); (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 49%, Romney 46%
There’s really nothing good here for the Romney camp. They’re kicking walls today.
Without Ohio, Romney needs a whole bunch of states where he’s even further behind.
Erickson at Red State has an elegaic post up on the campaign, and his commenters are all locking arms and getting ready to do a Thelma and Louise. They actually used the phrase “the only poll that counts is on Election Day,” which I expect we will hear from Romney himself this weekend.
No comments along the lines of “Romney wasn’t conservative enough” – I guess they aren’t at that stage of grief yet.
My concern is this: Republican voter shenanigans like voter suppression and voter fraud in OH and FL, both states of which have a history of such, if successful, would move their combined 47 electoral votes to Romney. Combine these with NC going red, your 333 blue votes becomes 271, so that one more state, like CO or WI, elects Romney.
i agree, wagon. I also trust Rick Scott and his ilk even less than Jeb Bush. Maybe all of this “the polls are wrong, Romney is actually leading in all these states” are the set-up so when they cheat to win, there can be a big “see? he was winning the whole time” Conspiracy theory, yes….. one that has actually happened twice before? yes.
“No comments along the lines of “Romney wasn’t conservative enough” – I guess they aren’t at that stage of grief yet.”
Those posts are all written, and the fat little fingers are hovering over the “publish” button.
Kos has a post up asking why Romney is spending time in NH with one EV. The answer came back in the comments:
“WI, VA, NC, FL, CO, and NH gets Romney to 271. It’s actually not a bad path and one that should scare us a little bit.”
Yeah, but in that same Daily Kos post, it is shown that Obama is leading in the polling averages of Wisconsin by more than he is in Ohio. So if Ohio is gone, then so is Wisconsin. And Obama leads by nearly the same amount in New Hampshire and Colorado and Virginia. Sure, if Mitt Romney spent the next month in those states, maybe he can move the polls to his direction, but the election is Tuesday.
Romney has run out of time.
This thread with liberals strong confidence must have been what it was like in the last few days in Hitlers bunker.
How’s California looking Rusty?
“WI, VA, NC, FL, CO, and NH gets Romney to 271. It’s actually not a bad path and one that should scare us a little bit.”
This path is the one in four chance that Nate Silver gives Rmoney of winning, it looks like to me. That’s a tough board to run. Not impossible, but damned tough.
Mother Jones provides a great summary of the poll aggregators out there. Including a conservative one (Scott Elliott) who is also calling the Electoral College vote for Obama.