Nate Cohn: “Absent a possible but unlikely last-minute shift in the polls between now and Election Day, Romney’s chances will come down to the low but existent risk that the polls are and have been completely wrong. As Senators Harry Reid and Michael Bennet can attest, the polls have been wrong before and could be wrong again. But the Romney campaign’s revival of August’s welfare attack and their recent Jeep outsourcing antics suggest that Boston’s numbers don’t show something too different, while Chicago has unwaveringly maintained that they hold a modest and clear lead in Ohio. With Obama near 49 percent and just six days to go before the polls close, Romney’s window for a comeback is getting vanishingly narrow.”
Meanwhile, 78% rate the President’s response to Hurricane Sandy as excellent or good, while 8% view it negatively. It’s good press for the President, and in fact it is good governance, but I doubt it moves the polls that much. The polls were already moving in the President’s way before the Hurricane struck, both nationally and in the battleground states.
We once again have a lot of polls today. The only major change is moving North Carolina back to a Tied status, from LEAN ROMNEY.
Key finding: 78% rate Obama’s response to the hurricane positively (as excellent or good), while just 8% see it negatively.
NATIONAL POLLS
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 49
(Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 45 (RV)
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
(National Journal/United Technologies): Obama 50, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
(YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO–The average is Obama 47.5, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Romney 46, Obama 45; (We Ask America–R): Obama 50, Romney 47
FLORIDA–The average is Obama 48.33, Romney 48, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 47; (Mellman Group–D): Obama 49, Romney 47; (We Ask America–R): Romney 50, Obama 49; (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 47, Romney 47
ILLINOIS–STRONG OBAMA—(We Ask America–R): Obama 57, Romney 41
INDIANA–STRONG ROMNEY—(McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 57, Obama 39
IOWA–The average is Obama 47.67, Romney 45.33, or SLIM OBAMA—(Univ. of Iowa): Romney 45, Obama 44; (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 47; (NBC/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 44
MICHIGAN–The average is Obama 50.5, Romney 43.5, or LEAN OBAMA—(EPIC-MRA): Obama 48, Romney 42; (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45
MISSOURI–STRONG ROMNEY—(We Ask America–R): Romney 54, Obama 42
NORTH CAROLINA–TIED–(PPP): Obama 49, Romney 49
NEVADA–SLIM OBAMA—(SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 46
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SLIM OBAMA—(NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47
OHIO–The average is Obama 49, Romney 45, or SLIM OBAMA–(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 45; (PPP):/a> Obama 50, Romney 45; (Newsmax/Zogby): Obama 50, Romney 44; (Univ. of Cincinnati): Obama 48, Romney 46
PENNSYLVANIA–SLIM OBAMA—(Franklin and Marshall): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 44 (RV)
VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 46, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 46; (PPP): Obama 49, Romney 46
WISCONSIN–The average is Obama 50.33, Romney 43.67, or LEAN OBAMA—(Marquette Law School): Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV); (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 49%, Romney 46%