The Polling Report [11.2.12]

I think we are looking at our final map here, folks. Obama has come on in Florida, but it is still possible that Romney can win that state. In fact, I think Nate Silver gives the odds to Romney there. Meanwhile, it is also possible that Obama can win in North Carolina, but that is much less likely that Romney winning Florida.

Why am I so confident on Obama winning Florida, you ask? Yesterday, a Democratic operative sent the Tampa Bay Times some data on the early vote in Florida so far “to make the point that President Obama is crushing Mitt Romney when it comes to banking the votes of sporadic and infrequent voters before election day.”

“So far more than 3 million Floridians have cast a ballot by absentee, mail-in ballot or in-person early vote ballot. Democrats lead by more than 60,000 votes, but it’s the unlikely voter numbers that jump out: Of the nearly 414,000 Floridians who did not vote in the last three general elections, Democrats have an advantage of more than 53,000 votes. Of the more than 482,000 Floridians who have only voted in one of the last three general elections, Democrats lead by more than 77,000 — a total of more than 132,000.”

NATIONAL POLLS
(ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48
(High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 43
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
(Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48

STATE POLLS

COLORADO–The average is Obama 49.2, Romney 47, or SLIM OBAMA—COLORADO (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 49, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 48 (RV); (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 50, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 44 (RV); Reuters-Ipsos: Romney 47, Obama 46

FLORIDA–SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 46

IOWA–SLIM OBAMA—IOWA (CallFire/Faith Horizon): Obama 50, Romney 47

MINNESOTA–LEAN OBAMA—(SurveyUSA): Obama 50, Romney 43

NORTH CAROLINA–SLIM ROMNEY—(High Point University): Romney 46, Obama 45

OHIO–SLIM OBAMA—(Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 47, Romney 45

RHODE ISLAND–STRONG OBAMA—(Fleming and Associates): Obama 54, Romney 33

WASHINGTON—STRONG OBAMA—(SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40; (Univ. of Washington): Obama 57, Romney 36

WISCONSIN–LEAN OBAMA—(St. Norbert College): Obama 51, Romney 42

VIRGINIA–LEAN OBAMA—(Reuters Ipsos): Obama 49, Romney 45

SENATE POLLS:
HI-SEN (Merriman River Group): Mazie Hirono (D) 55, Linda Lingle (R) 40
MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 60, Kurt Bills (R) 29
WA-SEN (Univ. of Washington): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 61, Michael Baumgartner (R) 33
WI-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 47 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46
WI-SEN (St. Norbert College): Tommy Thompson (R) 46, Tammy Baldwin (D) 43

GOVERNOR POLLS
NH-GOV (NBC News/Marist): Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 44 (LV); Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43 (RV)
WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 46
WA-GOV (Univ. of Washington): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 46