The Polling Report [11.3.12]

We have two conflicting polls out of Florida. One has Obama leading 49-47. The other has Romney winning 51-45. That is a pretty wide disparity. One of the pollsters is wrong. Regardless, the average of the two gives Romney a slim 2 point lead, and so the state moves back to the pink zone. Meanwhile, Obama’s lead in Ohio is growing ever larger.

NATIONAL POLLS
(ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)
(PPP Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48
(Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46
(Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48
(Zogby for the Washington Times): Obama 49, Romney 49

STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–STRONG OBAMA—(Field Poll): Obama 54, Romney 39

COLORADO–The average is Obama 47.67, Romney 45.67, or SLIM OBAMA—(Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46; (PPP for LCV): Obama 50, Romney 46; (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 45

CONNECTICUT–STRONG OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 55, Romney 42

FLORIDA–The average is Romney 49, Obama 47, or SLIM ROMNEY—(NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal)d: Obama 49, Romney 47; (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 45

GEORGIA–LEAN ROMNEY—(20/20 Insight for a Better Georgia): Romney 52, Obama 46

HAWAII–STRONG OBAMA—(Merriman River for Civil Beat): Obama 61, Romney 34

INDIANA–The average is Romney 52, Obama 41, or STRONG ROMNEY—(Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Romney 50, Obama 41; (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 54, Obama 41

IOWA–The average is Obama 47.5, Romney 44.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(Gravis Marketing–R): Obama 49, Romney 45; (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 46, Romney 44

MAINE–STRONG OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 55, Romney 42

MAINE 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT–The average is Obama 50.5, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(Gravis Marketing–R): Obama 50, Romney 47; (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 46

MASSACHUSETTS–The average is Obama 55.5, Romney 41.5, or STRONG OBAMA—(Kimball Consulting–R): Obama 54, Romney 41; (PPP): Obama 57, Romney 42

MICHIGAN–The average is Obama 50, Romney 43.5, or LEAN OBAMA—(Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 41; (PPP for LCV): Obama 52, Romney 46

MINNESOTA–LEAN OBAMA—(PPP for LCV): Obama 53, Romney 44

NEBRASKA–STRONG ROMNEY—(We Ask America–R): Romney 54, Obama 41

NEVADA–LEAN OBAMA—(Mellman Group for Americans United for Change): Obama 50, Romney 44

NEW HAMPSHIRE–The average is Obama 50, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(Gravis Marketing–R): Obama 50, Romney 49; (New England College): Obama 50, Romney 44

OHIO–The average is Obama 50.75, Romney 45.75, or LEAN OBAMA—(NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal): Obama 51, Romney 45; (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 45 (RV); (We Ask America–R): Obama 50, Romney 46

OREGON–LEAN OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

SOUTH DAKOTA–LEAN ROMNEY—(Nielson Brothers): Romney 50, Obama 42

UTAH–STRONG ROMNEY—(Dan Jones and Associates): Romney 69, Obama 26

VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA–(Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 45; (We Ask America–R): Obama 49, Romney 48

WISCONSIN–LEAN OBAMA–(We Ask America–R): Obama 52, Romney 45

SENATE POLLS
CA-SEN (Field Poll): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 54, Elizabeth Emken (R) 33
CT-SEN (PPP): Chris Murphy (D) 52, Linda McMahon (R) 43
FL-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 41
IN-SEN (Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 36, Andy Horning (L) 6; IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Richard Mourdock (R) 46, Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Andy Horning (L) 3
ME-SEN (PPP): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 36, Cynthia Dill (D) 12
MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting–R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47; MA-SEN (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D) 52, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46
MI-SEN (PPP for LCV): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoesktra (R) 40
NE-SEN (We Ask America–R): Deb Fischer (R) 54, Bob Kerrey (D) 41
OH-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 42
UT-SEN (Dan Jones and Associates): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 63, Scott Howell (D) 26
VA-SEN (Ipsos-Reuters): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 44; VA-SEN (We Ask America–R): George Allen (R) 50, Tim Kaine (D) 50

WI-SEN (We Ask America–R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46

GOVERNOR POLLS
IN-GOV (Bellwether/Garin-Hart-Yang for the Howey Report): Mike Pence (R) 47, John Gregg (D) 40, Rupert Boneham (L) 5; IN-GOV (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Mike Pence (R) 51, John Gregg (D) 39, Rupert Boneham (L) 3
MT-GOV (Mason Dixon): Rick Hill (R) 49, Steve Bullock (D) 46; MT-GOV (Mellman Group for the DGA): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 40
UT-Gov (Dan Jones and Associates): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 69, Peter Cooke (D) 24