Above you will see all my predictions for the 21 Senate races to be decided this Tuesday. Nine races are basically decided. Six Senators are unopposed completely: Senators Margaret Rose Henry, Bob Marshall, Dave McBride, Karen Peterson, Bethany Hall Long, and Brian Bushweller. Senators Colin Bonini, Harris McDowell, and Patti Blevins only have third party opposition, and all three will win easily. So we are already at 8 Democrats, and 1 Republican. 11 seats are needed for a majority. For the Dems, that means three to go.
In our next category are what I call the contested races. These are the races where both the Dems and the Repugs are contesting the race, but where one candidate, usually the incumbent, is heavily favored to win. Senator Dave Sokola, Delaware’s best Senator, will win, as will Delaware’s next best Senator, Bryan Townsend. Yeah, Christine O’Donnell’s hired thug Evan Queitsch is not much of an electoral juggernaut, not with his main campaign message of Agenda 21. Democrat Bruce Ennis will also win easily over Scott Unruh, although El Som is right again, in that if Unruh puts up a good showing, this will be Ennis’ last race. Republican Senators Lawson and Simpson will also win easily. Representative Hocker will get his long sought promotion. Unfortunately. And Brian Pettyjohn will become the next Senator of the 19th SD. The only way Dr. Jane Hovington could have won is if Pettyjohn remained off the ballot as a write in candidate.
I must digress here for a moment. Delaware’s failed Republican Party Chairman John Sigler, who has presided over the complete destruction of his party as a viable alternative in this state, had this to say about Pettyjohn getting on the ballot all the while ignoring all established election law and statutes:
“I am both shocked and disappointed that the Democrat’s “one-party-rule” over this state would extend to the processes by which we offer the people of Delaware meaningful options in selecting their State Senators,” said John Sigler, Delaware GOP party chair. “While in the beginning I was willing to believe that Commissioner Manlove was acting in good faith, I am no longer convinced of that fact.”
First some background. Indicted and alleged child molester Eric Bodenweiser won the Republican primary on September 11th over incumbent Senator Booth. And then, a couple weeks later, amid rumors of pending charges, Bodenweiser disappeared from the campaign trail. In the meantime, the various deadlines for a candidate to be replaced on the ballot passed without action by Bodenweiser or Sigler. In the meantime, Pettyjohn, on the day of the deadline for write in candidates to file for office, filed his candidacy. And then, days before his indictment, Bodenweiser officially withdrew from the race. At that point, the ballot was Hovington and a write in candidacy of Pettyjohn. The Republican Party was out of time to replace Bodenweiser. Commissioner Manlove was just observing the rule of law in opposing the GOP’s petition and in appealing the lower court’s judgment. You see, rules should mean something. But I suppose if you are Republican rules never apply to you. And as an aside, if the roles were reversed, and John Sigler was Commissioner of Elections and the Democrats were seeking to ignore the law and get special treatment, you better believe that Sigler would cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.
So, sorry for that digression, but John Sigler is a pathetic whining little man, a failure at his job, and he should just shut the f*ck up and be glad the courts saved his ass for reasons passing understanding.
Anyway, where do we stand? Well, the Democrats have already clinched majority control of the upper chamber by winning 11 seats already. The count stands as 11 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
And that is before we even get to what I call “actual races”. More proof that Sigler is a failure in recruiting.
I call the next category “actual races” not to diminish any other contested race. Rather, I do it because in these “actual” races, we really have no idea who is going to win (except of course I am about to tell you who will win). They are toss ups. In these races, El Som and I part ways in how we see these races playing out. El Som thinks Democratic Senator Dr. Mike Katz and Republican Senator Cathy Cloutier will win. I don’t. I predict defeat for both incumbents. I see Representative Gregg Lavelle defeating Katz and Christopher Counihan will defeat flip flopper Republican incumbent Cloutier. I also see future star Nicole Poore unseating Dori Connor in the 12th SD. Yes, I see a lot of incumbents dropping like flies here. And there is a reason. Redistricting has made the incumbents no longer representative of their districts. This is especially true of Dori Connor and Mike Katz.
In the newly created 6th District, unfortunately I foresee defeat for Andy Staton. Apparently, in the last moment, the Victory Fund issued a mailer criticizing Ernie Lopez for his extreme views, and this has apparently pissed off a lot of people in the district. Meanwhile, Bob Venables will win what will likely be his final term in the Senate, and then the seat can go Republican for the next millennia.
So my final prediction on the Senate: The Democrats gain one seat and increase their majority to 14. The Republicans will have 7 seats in the next session.