The Penultimate Polling Report [11.5.12]
Recent national polls show that independents are moving back to the President. A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, while the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama’s best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them.
Here is our map based on all the most recent polls below. As you can see, Colorado has moved back to the Obama column, and Florida back to the Romney column. Those two swing states have been the swingiest all campaign. I think Obama has the edge in Colorado and Romney, due to the illegal and immoral actions of the fascist Governor Rick Skeletor Scott, has the edge in Florida. Personally, I actually think Obama is going to win North Carolina due to the early voting lead he has, while Florida remains a true toss up. Indeed, the polling average of all the polls in Florida released yesterday show 48.89 for Romney and 48.22 for Obama. It doesn’t get much closer than that.
NATIONAL POLLS
CNN: Obama 49, Romney 49
Pew: Obama 50, Romney 47
PPP: Obama 50, Romney 47
Reuters Ipsos: Obama 48, Romney 47
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 49, Romney 48
Zogby: Romney 47.3, Obama 46.9
YouGuv: Obama 48.5, Romney 46.5
RAND: Obama 49.26, Romney 46.05
Rasmussen: Obama 49, Romney 49
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 49, Romney 47
STATE POLLS
COLORADO–The average is Obama 48, Romney 47.5, or SLIM OBAMA—(YouGov): Obama 48%, Romney 47%; (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 48%, Romney 48%
FLORIDA–The average is Romney 48.89, Obama 48.22, or SLIM ROMNEY—(Zogby): Romney 49%, Obama 47%; (YouGov): Romney 48%, Obama 47%; (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 46%, Romney 46%; (InsiderAdvantage): Romney 52%, Obama 47% ; (Public Policy Polling): Obama 50%, Romney 49%; (Pulse Opinion Research): Romney 50%, Obama 48%
IOWA–SLIM OBAMA—(YouGov): Obama 48%, Romney 47%; (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48
MICHIGAN–The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 45.5, or SLIM OBAMA—-(Foster McCollum-R): Romney 47%, Obama 46%; (YouGov): Obama 51%, Romney 44%
MINNESOTA–STRONG OBAMA—(Survey USA for KSTP): Obama 52, Romney 41
NEVADA–SLIM OBAMA—(YouGov): Obama 49%, Romney 45%
NEW HAMPSHIRE–The average is Obama 49, Romney 45.33, or SLIM OBAMA—(YouGov): Obama 47%, Romney 43%; (Public Policy Polling): Obama 50%, Romney 48%; (New England College): Obama 50%, Romney 45%
NORTH CAROLINA–The average is Romney 49, Obama 48, or SLIM ROMNEY—(YouGov): Romney 49%, Obama 47%; (Public Policy Polling): Obama 49%, Romney 49%
OHIO–The average is Obama 48.9, Romney 45.7, or SLIM OBAMA—(PPP): Obama 52, Romney 47; (Columbus Dispatch): Obama 50%, Romney 48%; (Zogby): Obama 50%, Romney 42%; (YouGov): Obama 49%, Romney 46%; (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 48%, Romney 44%; (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 48%, Romney 46%
PENNSYLVANIA–The average is Obama 49.17, Romney 45.84 or SLIM OBAMA—(Susquehanna-R): Obama 47%, Romney 47%; (Morning Call): Obama 49%, Romney 46%; (YouGov): Obama 52%, Romney 44%; (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 49%, Romney 46%
VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 48.44, Romney 46.78, or SLIM OBAMA—(Zogby): Obama 50%, Romney 44%; (YouGov): Obama 48%, Romney 46%; (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama 47%, Romney 46%; (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47; (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 48%, Romney 47%; (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 49%, Romney 48%
WISCONSIN–The average is Obama 49.5, Romney 47, orSLIM OBAMA—(YouGov): Obama 50%, Romney 46%; (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 49%, Romney 48%
