So that there be no revisionist history on my part, here were my predictions.
Overall record: 37-3.
Here’s Where I Got It Wrong:
I picked Katz over Lavelle, and Lavelle won a squeaker in the 4th SD. Neither candidate burnished their reputation with this race. Not that Lavelle had much of a reputation to burnish.
I did not buy Trey Paradee‘s analysis of his race against Linc Willis, and I should have. Never been happier to have been wrong. He, Bryan Townsend, and Nicole Poore immediately become rising stars to watch for the D’s.
I thought that Marie Mayor‘s grassroots-style campaign would enable her to edge Steve Smyk, but, unfortunately for the citizens of Delaware, I was mistaken. There was a strong red tide in Sussex which, although denizens of Greenville might wish otherwise, is the true power center of the Rethuglican Party in Delaware.
Here’s Where I Got It Right:
Every other race. Except that’s not entirely true. I thought the Cloutier-Counihan race would be close, and it wasn’t. I thought Kathleen Cooke, who challenged first-term senator Dave Lawson was basically a (good) name on the ballot. She proved to be a lot more than that. She’s got a bright political future should she decide to pursue it. I didn’t think that either the Atkins/Collins race or the Deaver/Ayotte race would be as close as they were.
Here’s Where I Got It Really Right:
“Valenzuela parlayed her (less than) 15 minutes of fame into some notoriety, so Matt Denn may not quite get Markell’s margin. But it will be huge.”
“Tom Gordon, big.”
“D Nicole Poore picks up this seat (SD 12) from incumbent R Dori Connor. Won’t be close.”
“(Dennis E.) Williams is a dependable progressive, I hope he wins, and I think he takes a 52% to 48% victory.”
“D Beth McGinn is the real deal (please run in 2014, Beth).”
Here’s My Take:
John Sigler may be ‘locked and loaded’, but the statewide Republican Party is in disarray. They have no bench at all. Every D north of 60% state and countywide. The only potential new ‘star’ that the R’s created this time is Ernesto Lopez. They’ve turned Tom Kovach into Delaware’s Harold Stassen. (Alternate theory: Kovach did that to himself. Discuss.)
I don’t see how the Rethugs unify. The Greenville crowd built a tenuous firewall (Lavelle/Cloutier) around what used to be their Chateau Country/Brandywine Hundred fortress this year, and they helped Lopez get elected. But D’s hold all the House seats there except for Deborah Capano Hudson. The wheezing denizens of the mansions on the hill are an endangered species, but an endangered species with money. And Sussex County R’s basically own that county with what remains of the Angry White People, the one (diminishing) demographic of the R’s.
R’s did have a significant victory, and D’s a significant defeat this time around. All three newly-created-due-to-reapportionment districts (2 House and 1 Senate) were won by R’s. Lopez, Smyk, and Jeffrey Spiegelman. While these wins represented ‘holds’, b/c each of the three seats was previously held by R’s, D’s have to be disappointed with those outcomes. Especially Pete Schwartzkopf. And the R’s moved closer to challenging for Senate control. Not likely in the near future, but you never know.
Time to put this baby to bed. Less than 730 days until Election Day 2014.