Tuesday Open Thread [11.27.12]

Newsweek: “There he was, less than a month ago, browbeating Barack Obama and finally finding his fire. Then Election Day dawned, Ohio was declared, and Mitt Romney waved goodbye to his White House dreams with a shellshocked ‘Thanks, guys.’ And that was that. No ‘You won’t have Romney to kick around anymore’ tirade. No demands for a recount or talk of hanging chads. Sure, he tried to sling a little mud by claiming Obama had bought off Hispanics, but even GOPers called the comment ‘nuts.’ No–by and large, Romney’s fade has been quick and quiet. His last tweet was on Nov. 10. He’s not making the talk-show rounds. Paparazzi are having trouble finding him–and when they do, he’s in the middle of the most yawnworthy of tasks (pumping gas, taking the clan to Disneyland). Clearly the man’s not planning a big comeback.”

And we can be grateful for that. I don’t know what it was, but Romney’s voice was like nails on a chalkboard to me. It was worse listening to him than it was listening to Sarah Palin. And his fake smile. I am just glad he is gone.

But the Tea Party and the Republican Civil War that keeps allowing us Dems to win Senate seats is still with us. The Mike Castle of West Virginia (i.e. the most popular and long sought after Republican in the state) is Rep. Shelly Moore Capito. After years of pleading with her to run for one of the Senate seats (obviously because they view her as an unstoppable candidate), the GOP establishment has gotten their wish. But not so fast. The Club for Growth is going to primary her.

On day one of her candidacy, Capito received criticism from two conservative groups known for mounting primary challenges against establishment-backed Republicans: the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group founded by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).

Chris Chocola, president of the Club, slammed her as an “establishment candidate,” and Senate Conservatives Fund executive director Matt Hoskins said the group wouldn’t endorse her.

LOL. So who is West Virginia’s Christine O’Donnell?

Rolling Stone has a good interview with James Carville, in which he offers his assessment of the coming 2016 race:

I want to get your read on 2016. Who are the top five candidates on either side?
The number-one issue for Republicans in 2016 will be, “Who can win the general election?” Not who is the most conservative, not who is the best they’ve got, but who can win the general. From a Democratic standpoint, the obsessive question is going to be, “Does Hillary run or not?” If she does, a lot of people are going to say, “We should act like Republicans.”

There’s going to be a lot of falling in line?
Falling in line, yeah. Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line, but we might be the people who fall in line this time. Someone will run against her, of course, but it will be a tough case to make.

On their side, they need a Republican version of Bill Clinton in 1992, someone who can shed the old image of the party. If Jeb Bush had been named Jeb Smith, he would have changed that brand and been the nominee, and he probably would have won. That’s the person I’d be most afraid of – Jeb Smith. Maybe somebody with that kind of skill will emerge.

Somebody like a Chris Christie?
They hate Chris Christie. We have no idea how much they hate Chris Christie right now because of the Sandy stuff.

Do you think that will blow over for him?
Who knows? I’ve seen my man, President Clinton, leave office, and now there’s not a more popular person in the world.

What will be the deciding factor in 2016?
Our party’s fate, in a larger sense, is going to be tied up in what happens with the economy. The dominant issue in American politics is how you get the middle class back in the game. If recovery takes hold, the Democrats will be in a pretty commanding position.

What he means by that is that we Democrats are all going to fall in line behind Hillary, while the Republicans will behave like Democrats. He thinks they act like Democrats in 1992, and chose a candidate that can win a general election. In my opinion, only two candidates can do that: Christie and Jeb Bush. And Jeb Bush is not really what one thinks about when you think about change, plus he has that last name and that family to contend with. And as Carville said, they all hate Chris Christie right now. Meanwhile, you have such heavyweights like Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum contemplating runs. And given that Rick Santorum is the official runner up in the 2012 Primary race, I think he is the odds on favorite to win the primary. You laugh, but the GOP has this long history of rewarding the runner up or second place finisher, the guy who is next in line as it were, with the nomination in the next election.

2008 Runner up is Mitt Romney and Romney is the next GOP nominee in 2012.
2000 Runner up is John McCain, and McCain is the next GOP nominee in 2000.
1988 Runner up is Bob Dole, and Bob Dole is the next GOP nominee in 1996.
1980 Runner up is George H.W. Bush, and Bush is the next GOP nominee in 1988.
1976 Runner up is Ronald Reagan, and Reagain is the next GOP nominee in 1980.

There really wasn’t a runner up in 1996, unless you consider Pat Buchanan a serious candidate, but in 2000, the “next in line” establishment choice was the son of the last President, George W. Bush. In 1976, Gerald Ford was the obvious next in line since he was the incumbent, albeit unelected, President. In 1960 and 1968, Nixon was an obvious establishment candidate. So throughout the modern history of the GOP, the next in line gets the nod. So that means we are looking at a Santorum-Palin ticket. Hahahahaha.