Month: November 2012

So the majority of the contributors at DL will be at the Queen tonight celebrating the reelections of the President, Vice President, Governor Markell, and Lt. Governor Denn, among others. So I don't know if we will be able to update the blog as often as we would like to. So post whatever you are hearing here, whether it has to with national results. There will be another thread for Delaware results. And can I say, thank God this is over!!!

A Democratic voter in the 6th Senate District received a mailer from Ernie Lopez's campaign, directing him to a false polling place. Here is the mailer:

NPR is reporting that voters in Belmont, Massachusetts were asked to leave the voting line so Mittens can vote without rubbing elbows with the riffraff. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden stood in line with regular folks to cast his ballot at his polling place.

As you may know, a very small town in New Hampshire named Hart's Location votes at Midnight. Well, the tally was Barack Obama 23, Mitt Romney 9, Gary Johnson 2. That's 68% to 27% to 5%. Landslide.

So, here we are. Election. The ultimate polling report. The only poll that matters. Well, we got some more polls yesterday to report to you, including 18 national polls, and nearly twice as many state polls. Before we get to the numbers and the map and my prediction of the final outcome, here are some great guides about the swing states, including past results, final polling averages and poll closing times: Harry Enten and the Economist. The average of all the following final national polls is Obama 48.94, Romney 47.11, or a 1.83 point lead for the President. The national polls have clearly moved in the President's direction over the past week and during the final weekend, and I think, with the undecideds either splitting evenly or, as some polls like the NBC/Wall Street Journal Marist poll shows, towards the President, then we could be looking at a 4-5 point margin in the popular vote. Something along the lines of O 51, R 47. And here is our final poll projection map. And come inside to see my final prediction, which is a little different from the final poll projection map.

So, the polling shows that the Dems will pick up Maine (assuming Independent Angus King caucuses with the Dems), Massachusetts and Indiana. The Republicans are likely, based on recent polling, to pick up Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska. If the polling is correct, then the Senate will stay the same, with 53 Democrats and Independents to 47 Republicans. It is quite possible, even probable, that the Dems will retain their seats in Montana and North Dakota. Both races are very close. If that happens, the Dems will increase their majority to either 54 or 55 seats. Those are the projections. Here is my prediction: I think Jon Tester wins in Montana, and I agree with the rest of the polling, so I predict that the Dems pick up 1 seat, and the new Senate will be 54-46. As for the House, that is harder to predict or project. The Democrats currently have 193 seats, and the GOP has the majority with 242 seats. With 435 seats in the House, the Dems will need to get to 218 to have a majority, a net gain of 25 seats. Can they do it?