The Polling Report [12.8.12]

Jonathan Chait:

“How doomed are conservatives? Pretty doomed, if you look carefully at the Pew Research Survey’s close analysis of the youth vote in the 2012 elections. The Republicans’ long-term dilemma has generally been framed in racial terms, but it’s mainly a generational one. The youngest generation of voters contains a much smaller proportion of white voters than previous generations, and those whites in that generation vote Republican by a much smaller margin than their elders. What’s more, younger voters supported President Obama during the last two election cycles for reasons that seem to go beyond the usual reasons — social issues like gay marriage and feminism, immigration policy, or Obama’s personal appeal — and suggest a deeper attachment to liberalism. The proclivities of younger voters may actually portend a full-scale sea change in American politics.”

NEW JERSEY–GOVERNOR—PPP: Christie 50, Booker 36

The PPP survey also finds Christie’s approval rate is 67% to 25%.

NEW JERSEY–SENATOR–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–PPP: A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey finds that if Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) was to retire — or even if he doesn’t — Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) has a clear shot at the seat.

Key findings: By a 59% to 22% margin Democrats say they would prefer their candidate in 2014 be Booker than Lautenberg. And Booker emerges as the strong favorite in an open seat situation too. 48% would want Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rob Andrews and 13% for Frank Pallone, both Congressmen who have shown an interest in moving up.

GEORGIA–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–PPP: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 57, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) 14; Chambliss 50, Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) 22; Chambliss 52, former Secretary of State Karen Handel 23.

However, just 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative.

NATIONAL–POST ELECTION–REPUBLICAN INSANITY–PPP: 49% of Republican voters nationally say they think that ACORN stole the election for President Obama, as compared to 52% that thought ACORN stole the 2008 election, “a modest decline, but perhaps smaller than might have been expected given that ACORN doesn’t exist anymore.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING–Associated Press-GfK: Obama’s approval rating stands at 57%, the highest since May 2011, when U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden, and up 5 percentage points from before the election. And 42% say the country is on the right track, up from 35% in January 2009.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING–Quinnipiac: President Obama’s approval rate at 53% to 40%. Voters also trust Obama and Democrats more than Republicans, by a 53% to 36% margin, to avoid the “fiscal cliff.”

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Nothing like winning an election to boost your job approval. President Obama hasn’t had a score this good since his 52 – 40 percent approval rating May 5, 2011, right after the death of Osama bin Laden. This is only the second time in more than three years that President Obama has broken 50 percent. And voters see Republicans as more likely to be obstructionist, and have less confidence in their ability to come up with the right solution to the nation’s financial woes.”

NATIONAL–APPROVAL RATING–2016–ABC New/Washington Post: 57% of voters would back a presidential bid by Hillary Clinton, with just 37% opposed.

Clinton will leave her post as Secretary of State early next year with a 69% approval rate for the job she’s done. She also has a 67% overall favorability rate — a new high in her long public career as first lady, U.S. Senator, presidential candidate and top U.S. diplomat.

SOUTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–POTENTIAL CANDIDACY: Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sandord (R) told the Wall Street Journal he’d been by bombarded by calls and emails from former donors and allies encouraging him to consider a run in the 2014 election for Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-SC) seat. And despite the sex scandal that seemingly ended his political career, he’s not dismissing the idea.

ILLINOIS–SENATOR–2016–PPP: First Lady Michelle Obama 51, Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) 40.

NATIONAL–FISCAL SLOPE–AP-GfK: The poll found that, by 46 percent to 30 percent, more favor cutting government services to raising taxes to tackle budget deficits. That sentiment echoes the view of the GOP, which has emphasized spending cuts during four years of budget battles with Obama. Yet support for trimming government services has dropped in AP-GfK polls. It was 56 percent last February and 62 percent in March 2011. However, when we get specific….

By 48 percent to 40 percent, more oppose proposals to gradually raise the eligibility age for Medicare from 65. Only 3 in 10 support slowing the growth of annual Social Security benefits. And more people oppose than favor cutting military spending.

NATIONAL–FILIBUSTER REFORM–National Journal: A plurality of voters, 49-42, are in support of Senate reform.

NATIONAL–FISCAL SLOPE–National Journal: 79 percent of those surveyed want fiscal-cliff negotiators not to cut Medicare at all. Only 17 percent would be willing to see it cut some, and a minuscule 3 percent would be OK with it being cut a lot.

NATIONAL–FISCAL SLOPE–Democracy Corp: 60% want no cuts at all to Social Security and Medicare, and 47 percent strongly believe that cuts to Social Security and Medicare should be off the table.

“The polling shows the mandate is to protect Medicare and Social Security, not cut them. And Washington will face a TARP-like reaction if they read the election wrong.” The election results give Democrats all the mandate they need to fight for keeping these programs safe. The next election should give them the impetus to do it.

NATIONAL–FISCAL SLOPE BLAME GAME–Quinnipiac: By a 56 – 38 percent margin, voters say that Obama and congressional Democrats will make a good faith effort to cooperate with congressional Republicans on important issues. By 51 – 43 percent, voters say congressional Republicans will not act in good faith.

By a huge 67 – 23 percent margin, voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, but strongly favor, 62 – 28 percent, limiting the deduction to the first $500,000 of mortgage debt. By 56 – 35 percent, voters favor eliminating that deduction for second homes.

Voters 65 – 31 percent support higher taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year, with 84 – 14 percent support from Democrats and 66 – 31 percent support from independent voters. Republicans are opposed 53 – 41 percent.

NATIONAL–FISCAL SLOPE–ABC/Washington Post: Americans support raising taxes on incomes over $250,000 a year, 60%-37%. They oppose generally reducing deductions people can claim on their federal income taxes, 49% to 44%. And they oppose raising the age for Medicare coverage from 65 to 67, 67% to 30%.