I said on Wednesday at the PDD Meeting that Gun Control on the Federal level so long as the Republicans are in control of the House, and hell, so long as Democrats are cowardly preserving the filibuster privileges of the Senate Republicans. Indeed, it is a mystery to me why some Democrats and everyone in the media thought somehow that Republicans would abandon the NRA and pass even the most innocuous gun control measure. On state level, things look better, in Connecticut and Colorado and Maryland, and also here in Delaware, where at least one bill, the Universal Background Check bill, has a good chance of passing if we lobby our legislators so that the hear sane reasonable voices in addition to the insane pro-gun arguments. But whether legislation is successful on the state or national level, the issue is back as a cultural wedge issue, and this time the case can be made, based on the poll numbers I showed you in the Polling Report today, that it benefits Democrats.
“For decades after the cultural upheavals of the 1960s, Republicans regularly provoked confrontations on a broad array of polarizing noneconomic ‘wedge issues,’ from crime and welfare to immigration and gay rights. Democrats, with a few exceptions, mostly tried through those years to neutralize the debates and quickly pivot back to economic terrain.”
“Now, that has flipped. In Washington and in blue-leaning states, Democrats are forcing the collisions on these issues. Democrats may not win all of these fights legislatively, in Congress or in the state capitals. And in most red states, Republicans are still pursuing their own culturally conservative agenda, particularly on abortion. But the Democrats’ willingness to take the offense on so many cultural issues represents a stark change–and a measure of their confidence that they now represent the national majority on these disputes.”
Brian Beutler at TPM says on every other cultural wedge issue, that is true, but on gun control it is not yet:
Back in the late 1990s, social issues were the GOP’s raison d’être.
With the economy thriving, Republicans famously kept their political footing by fighting Democrats over God, guns and gays. Immigration was a winning issue for the GOP too. The list went on.
Fifteen years later, the dynamic has almost completely reversed. Two years ago, Republicans were playing footsie with the idea of amending the Constitution to deny citizenship to the children of unauthorized immigrants U.S. Today, five months after President Obama’s re-election, they’re coalescing around legislation that could ultimately turn 11 million immigrants into voters.
Obama’s victory was likewise the bellow that triggered an avalanche of political support for marriage equality.
But when it comes to guns, things don’t look much different than they did just over a decade ago. In the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre, elected officials still lie in paralytic fear of the NRA. And supporters of new gun regulations are taking a close look at what makes their issue immune to the demographic and cultural phenomena that have seemingly changed the politics of gay rights, immigration, and other issues forever.[…]
Universal background checks may enjoy overwhelming support across the country, but gun owners and sympathizers in rural states with little gun crime are less animated by the idea — which means politicians can’t count on them to offset the backlash from high-intensity pro-gun voters.[…]
“The NRA has done a very good job of convincing a vocal segment of gun owners, that new laws means they have to give something up,” Kessler said. “They’ve sold that narrative very very well, and they’ve elevated their membership to believe that they’re the bulwark that’s protecting this right…. What the other side is getting is safety, and the question is how tangible is that.”
I would argue that gun control is now a wedge issue when it comes to the public. Beutler is right that legislators are not on our side as they fear the NRA. But when 90% of the public agree with your policy position, and the other political party’s members oppose it, by definition, it is a wedge issue. The question that is open is whether the Republicans will suffer any electoral consequences due to their stand in opposition to 90% of what the people want.
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